Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from June 27th, 2018

Kennedy’s out

June 27th, 2018, 7:10pm by Sam Wang

Action on partisan gerrymandering by the Supreme Court was already on its last legs with the Gill decision. With Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement, at least now we won’t have to sit around wondering what will happen next. To tell the truth, he seemed so passive this term. Stayed with the conservatives on every decision, and […]

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Tags: Supreme Court

Can Open Data Save Redistricting Reform?

June 26th, 2018, 7:40am by Sam Wang

In light of the recent rulings on partisan and racial gerrymandering from the Supreme Court, it’s time for reformers to go to the trenches. A magic bullet in the form of a ruling from the Supremes would have been great, but I’m not holding my breath. New in The American Prospect, Ben Williams, John O’Neill, […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Texas successfully runs out the clock – and sets an ominous standard

June 25th, 2018, 11:09am by Sam Wang

First, the partisan-gerrymandering news. The North Carolina case, Rucho v. Common Cause, was sent back for reconsideration (“vacate and remand”) in light of the Court’s decision in Gill v. Whitford. Retrying Rucho would take a while, so hopefully they will find a faster way. Now, to racial gerrymandering. In the last redistricting case of this […]

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Tags: Redistricting · Supreme Court

Both Sides Now

June 20th, 2018, 6:06pm by Sam Wang

Although I wasn’t thrilled to see the Supreme Court kick the can down the road, the Roberts decision and the Kagan concurrence are quite clarifying, logically speaking. These justices have, in some ways, sorted things out nicely.

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Tags: Redistricting · Supreme Court

Kicking the can down the road

June 18th, 2018, 10:33am by Sam Wang

From the opinion (click image to get whole decision):The Supreme Court has opinions on Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone. First, the good news: the Court likes our math! The bad news: they think it answered a First Amendment claim, and they decided this was a Fourteenth Amendment case. Major points, in short: They […]

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Tags: Redistricting

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is expanding!

June 1st, 2018, 11:20pm by Sam Wang

Anyone interested in containing partisan gerrymanders is waiting for several major decisions from the Supreme Court this  month. But no matter which way those decisions go, the next stage of reform will be local. For this reason, my team at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project is making plans to expand our research efforts, which bridge mathematics and […]

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Tags: Princeton · Redistricting · Supreme Court