Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from March 28th, 2018

Today’s big partisan gerrymandering case: Maryland (Benisek v. Lamone)

March 28th, 2018, 11:40am by Sam Wang

Leaving SCOTUS now. There are almost certainly at least five votes to strike down Maryland’s partisan gerrymander, but no clarity on the equally important question of HOW the Court will do so. — Ian Millhiser (@imillhiser) March 28, 2018 So, oral arguments in Benisek just ended. Here’s the transcript! A round-up of the case is […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Job opportunity – Legal/Statistical Analyst, Princeton Gerrymandering Project

March 26th, 2018, 4:41pm by brian

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is hiring a Legal Analyst! The PGP combines law with statistics to develop and explain mathematical tools to detect partisan gerrymandering. This person will join a team with expertise in statistics, law, computational simulation, mathematical rigor, and practical policy. As the 2020 redistricting looms, the PGP is taking the fight to […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Politics and Polls: Can Trump Actually Shut Down the Mueller Investigation?

March 22nd, 2018, 4:45pm by Sam Wang

As Trump hostility to Mueller’s investigation heats up, can he actually shut it down? On Politics And Polls, I talk to Fordham Law professor and Trump-investigation expert Jed Shugerman about fail-safes that Mueller may have put in place, and legal theories of the case. Listen to the new Politics & Polls! Oh, and in case […]

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Tags: President · U.S. Institutions

Game over in Pennsylvania!

March 19th, 2018, 3:49pm by Sam Wang

Today came two rulings. First, a three-judge court turned down a challenge to the redrawn Pennyslvania Congressional map. Then, a few hours later, the U.S. Supreme Court did the same. These were long-shot cases, since they would have involved finding that the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Constitution was in conflict with the United States Constitution, for example […]

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Tags: 2018 Election · 2020 Election · Redistricting

Pennsylvania’s (current) 18th CD: The top of the levee

March 13th, 2018, 9:08pm by Sam Wang

Whoever wins today’s special election to fill the open Congressional seat in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, it wasn’t supposed to be close. It’s part of a statewide partisan gerrymander, a district that a generic Republican ought to win by about 20 points. In November 2016, Donald Trump got 58% to Hillary Clinton’s 39%. The closeness of […]

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Tags: 2018 Election