Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from January 22nd, 2018

Pennsylvania Congressional gerrymander overturned – and it seems likely to stick

January 22nd, 2018, 2:51pm by Sam Wang

Update, February 5th: Justice Alito denied the Pennsylvania GOP legislators’ motion for a stay. He did so without referring the matter to the full Supreme Court. Justice Alito is one of the three most conservative members of the court, and a near-guaranteed vote against restrictions on partisan gerrymandering…based on the U.S. Constitution. I would call […]

[

Tags: 2018 Election · Redistricting

Gobbledygook 101: Buttercup Petals and Partisan Gerrymandering

January 17th, 2018, 9:34am by Sam Wang

What do all these phenomena have in common with partisan gerrymandering? Tools developed over a century ago can help us detect and limit partisan gerrymandering today. Maps and geometry by themselves won’t do the job. Find out why in our new Vox explainer. Image: table from Karl Pearson’s original 1895 paper on the mean-median difference.

[

Tags: Redistricting

Politics & Polls #73: What does the North Carolina gerrymandering decision mean?

January 11th, 2018, 3:54pm by Sam Wang

Our podcast’s now available on Spotify! Today, Julian Zelizer and I discussed the North Carolina court decision. What does it mean for reform ahead? Listen to the new Politics & Polls.

[

Tags: Politics · Princeton · Redistricting

CNN tonight, 11pm Eastern, on partisan gerrymandering

January 10th, 2018, 4:29pm by Sam Wang

I’ll appear in the 11 o’clock hour to talk about yesterday’s North Carolina partisan gerrymandering decision. I’ll be on with Don Lemon. He’ll also have the Reverend William Barber of the Moral Mondays movement in North Carolina. Tune in! For those of you who missed it, here’s the video.

[

Tags: Redistricting

North Carolina Congressional map struck down as a partisan gerrymander

January 9th, 2018, 5:33pm by Sam Wang

News flash – in League of Women Voters of North Carolina v. Rucho (and Common Cause v. Rucho), a federal court has found the Congressional district map to be an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Decision here. Recall that this is a map that was first found to be a racial gerrymander, and then was re-litigated as […]

[

Tags: Redistricting

Democratic Party nominating rules for 2020

January 3rd, 2018, 8:52am by Sam Wang

Happy new year, all! It’s too early to say who is in the running for the Democratic Party nomination for the Presidency. However, the shape of the playing field is starting to emerge. Courtesy of Josh Putnam at Frontloading HQ, here’s a rundown (in three parts) over recent rules changes. My insta-reaction: Primaries versus caucuses: […]

[

Tags: 2020 Election