Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from December 25th, 2016

Constitutional Hardball: Can Senate Democrats Confirm Merrick Garland on January 3rd?

December 25th, 2016, 11:25pm by Sam Wang

On the New York Times opinion page, the editors suggest (“The Stolen Supreme Court Seat,” December 24th) that President-elect Donald Trump could nominate President Obama’s choice, Judge Merrick Garland, as a gesture of goodwill. I myself suggested this on CNN last month (that was the point, you guys, not the bug – go watch). This […]

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Tags: Politics · Senate

Happy Hannukah / Merry Christmas!

December 25th, 2016, 3:47am by Sam Wang

2016 was tumultuous. I expect 2017 will be more so. But today is peaceful, at least here. I hope you all have a good holiday wherever you are. Above, a song in memory of the Red Army Choir.

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Tags: 2014 Election

Politics & Polls #25: What does the Declaration of Independence say about limited government?

December 22nd, 2016, 9:01pm by Sam Wang

Sometimes the Declaration of Independence is hauled out as an argument for limited government. But historian Steve Pincus points out that the Declaration was actually a complaint that the government should do more to promote and protect citizens’ welfare. Blew my mind. Julian Zelizer and I interviewed him about his new book: “Heart of the […]

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Tags: Politics


December 21st, 2016, 10:58pm by Sam Wang

Recently, some progressive Congressional staffers wrote Indivisible, their guide for resisting the Trump agenda. The guide went viral. Now they have a website, A current version of the guide is here.

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Tags: U.S. Institutions

What Actions are Shared to All Fascist Movements?

December 21st, 2016, 3:17pm by Sam Wang

Today’s leisure reading is Robert Paxton’s essay The Five Stages of Fascism (downloadable PDF). It’s a followup to my previous post on Umberto Eco’s essay on fascism. According to Paxton (link to biography), even though fascist movements had varying stated goals, the shared elements lay in what they actually did.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics · U.S. Institutions

What data got right in 2016 – and what’s ahead for PEC

December 20th, 2016, 2:25pm by Sam Wang

Harry Enten points out that areas surrounding Ivy League schools voted predominantly for Clinton. He concludes that these are bubbles. I think there is something more in these numbers. Undeniably, academics tilt liberal, as do the communities they live in. However, additional forces were at work in 2016. White college-educated voters swung away from the […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Podcast #24: A Politics & Polls Home Companion

December 17th, 2016, 3:45pm by Sam Wang

Polarization was a strong undercurrent to the 2016 presidential election, affecting the campaign, voting, and now President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet appointments. In an unusual *live* recording of Politics & Polls, Julian Zelizer and I discuss Trump’s recent appointments, the state of polarization today and how the polls got it wrong in the recent election. Link: […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Democracy’s Survival, Part I: Action Items for Today

December 16th, 2016, 7:30am by Sam Wang

In today’s NYT, two scholars of authoritarian movements, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, weigh in. It’s an important article. Readers, recall that my main purpose in running this site was not simply to aggregate polls. I also wanted to help direct efforts and resources. Presidential polls were off (watch my entomophagy, which I made as […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · U.S. Institutions

The Comey effect

December 10th, 2016, 10:06pm by Sam Wang

September 18, 2017: Re-upping it again because of that claim over at The Monkey Cage to the contrary. Nothing new to add, except that it is always possible to cast doubt on a fairly obvious claim if you use a method that makes your error bars large. May 9th, 2017: I am re-upping this because […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Politics & Polls #23 with Jamelle Bouie on the Democrats’ Response

December 8th, 2016, 9:26am by Sam Wang

Since Donald Trump’s election, there has been considerable debate about what the Democratic party should do next. While some Democrats argue for an openness to cooperation, others insist there isn’t room for compromise given Trump’s views on race and individual rights. In this episode of Politics & Polls, professors Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang interview […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President