Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from November 26th, 2016

Princeton Events – What Happened In The Election?

November 26th, 2016, 2:27pm by Sam Wang

This week at Princeton, I’ll be at two events to discuss what happened in the election, and the uncertain road ahead. Both are open to the public. Monday November 28th, at 7:00pm. At the Princeton Public Library, I’ll join a panel moderated by Stan Katz, and featuring Ruth Mandel and Charles Stile. Thursday December 1st, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Helping the New Gerrymandering Standard Survive in the Supreme Court

November 24th, 2016, 10:20pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Thanksgiving brings the nation a win for fair representation, in the form of a way to deal with partisan gerrymandering. A three-judge court ruled that the Wisconsin state legislative map is a partisan gerrymander: a map drawn to favor one major political party over the other (decision: Whitford Op. and Order, Dkt. 166, Nov. 21, […]

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Tags: House · Redistricting

On CNN around 9:25am Eastern w/Smerconish

November 12th, 2016, 8:12am by Sam Wang

Post-mortem. Plus, I keep my word about the bug.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Politics & Polls #20: What Just Happened?

November 11th, 2016, 2:51pm by Sam Wang

Despite the importance of understanding this week’s cataclysmic events, I have been slow to write. There are other demands, especially my annual national scientific conference, which begins tomorrow. The question of what went wrong in polls – and where I went additionally wrong – is an important one. I owe you a serious assessment, but […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Looking ahead

November 9th, 2016, 12:53am by Sam Wang

Going into today’s election, many races appeared to be very close: 12 state-level Presidential races were within five percentage points. But the polls were off, massively. And so we face the likelihood of an electoral win by Donald Trump. At the same time, Hillary Clinton appears likely to win the popular vote. The Upshot’s model […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Election thread #2

November 8th, 2016, 9:34pm by Sam Wang

11:44pm: The business about 65%, 91%, 93%, 99% probability is not the main point. The entire polling industry – public, campaign-associated, aggregators – ended up with data that missed tonight’s results by a very large margin. There is now the question of understanding how a mature industry could have gone so wrong. And of course, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election

Election liveblog thread #1

November 8th, 2016, 6:14pm by Sam Wang

I’ll comment as the evening progresses. 9:09pm: The NYTimes Senate projected margins are running several percentage points more Republican than pre-election polls. 9:04pm: Here are some negative signs for Democrats: Trump’s ahead in Florida, overperforming his polls by several percentage points. Also, NH and PA Senate races leaning R at the NYTimes tracker. I note that […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Geek’s Guide To The Election, 2016

November 8th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Here’s an informal guide to help you track results. I’ll probably update it up until 5:00pm. Please report errors in comments. Also, please list places you’ll be monitoring results tonight. In other news, Buzzfeed has announced criteria for scoring the forecasters. They are using Brier scores and root-mean-squared errors. Geek’s Guide Version 2.1, 2:00pm: Word and PDF.

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Tags: 2016 Election

Final Projections 2016

November 8th, 2016, 12:45am by Sam Wang

(Updates: 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate, and added confidence intervals. 9:00 am: more description, also variance minimization.) Here are the final snapshots. Four Senate races are within one percentage point: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Partisans there may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. Soon I’ll put out a brief […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

Today on The Takeaway: The Home Stretch

November 7th, 2016, 8:33am by Sam Wang

Today on The Takeaway with host John Hockenberry: How certain is the Presidential race? What about the Senate? Who picks the bug? The show airs nationwide at various times starting at 9:00am Eastern (I’m scheduled at 30-40 minutes after the hour). Find a radio station near you, stream at, or listen to the segment […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate