Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from October 19th, 2016

The Virtues of the L.A. Times Poll

October 19th, 2016, 9:07am by Sam Wang

Yesterday I visited a journalism class. The question arose of how to interpret the L.A. Times/Dornsife/USC poll, which has been unusually favorable to Donald Trump. I said that polls should be treated the way reporters treat other sources of information: get confirmation from a second source. In the case of polls, find two other sources […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect

October 18th, 2016, 9:00am by Sam Wang

With three weeks to go to the election, Hillary Clinton is headed for an electoral victory comparable to President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins. In national polls, Donald Trump’s support is where it has been all year, around 40-42% of voters. If Clinton’s lead increases, the added support will probably come from “undecided” and minor-party […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

The Polarization Hypothesis Passes The “Access Hollywood” Test

October 17th, 2016, 2:03pm by Sam Wang

Tweet *Video surfaces of Donald Trump killing and eating a guy* Trump surrogate on CNN: UM SILENCE OF THE LAMBS WON BEST PICTURE IN 1992 — Aaron Chewning (@AaronChewning) October 12, 2016 Polarization is so strong that other than Debate #1, which moved opinion by about four percentage points, it is looking like no existing […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

David Daley and Sam Wang on gerrymandering

October 15th, 2016, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Last night, David Daley and I appeared at our local bookstore, Labyrinth, to talk about gerrymandering: its effects on democracy, how technology has made it worse, and what can be done to prevent it. It’s is the subject of his new book, Ratf**ked. Thanks to Labyrinth Books and to Princeton Public Lectures, the discussion is […]

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Tags: Princeton · Redistricting

Senate Polls Meandering Toward Presidential Race

October 14th, 2016, 9:27am by Sam Wang

The last significant movement in the Presidential race occurred after the first debate. Here are national polls, unraveled day-by-day: I calculated this for each date by taking the median of all polls that were surveying voters on each particular day. Then I smoothed it with a 3-day rolling median. It’s not perfect, but it does […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

All The Reasons You Doubt Polls: Motivated Reasoning Strikes Again

October 14th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Every Presidential election, it happens. People on the side that is heading for a loss find ways to disbelieve what polls are telling them. This year is no different.

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

The cabaret was quiet except for the drillin’ in the wall

October 14th, 2016, 12:57am by Sam Wang

Bob Dylan has been awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature. Awesome. He is a big part of the America I love. To echo Josh Marshall, this news makes me optimistic. The choice of Dylan breaks a drought in U.S. writers since Toni Morrison won in 1993. The award to Dylan makes sense in the light […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Politics And Polls #15: Senate And House Outlook

October 13th, 2016, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Wasserman is the most knowledgeable person about House districts and elections I know. We chew the cud about the election – and 2017. Listen now! After you are done…find a swing district near you.

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Tags: 2016 Election · House

Year Of The Woman, Again: Four Races That Will Determine The Senate Majority

October 13th, 2016, 6:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet The election of 1992 was hailed as the Year Of The Woman. In the wake of Anita Hill’s testimony against the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, female candidates such as Patty Murray were moved to run for office. Then-candidate Barbara Mikulski took issue with press coverage that treated her like a […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Senate

Weekend At Bernie’s (no, not that Bernie)

October 12th, 2016, 4:55am by Sam Wang

To the extent that the most statistically stable Presidential race in 65 years can be made to look alive, here it is. Right-click to adjust the looping playback. Animated Median EV I have a question for readers. To me, it is plain that this year’s race is statistically highly stable, i.e. it hasn’t moved up […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President