Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from October 31st, 2016

Midnight Suspense Theater: The Senate

October 31st, 2016, 9:32pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate. Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

A Test of the Polarization Hypothesis

October 30th, 2016, 3:10pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Just want to confirm, we’re gonna keep up the shouting into the void about global catastrophe while politicians argue about email, right? — Katie Mack (@AstroKatie) October 30, 2016 So, on the day that I wrote in the New York Times about how the race is so emotional that no minds will change, people […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Polarized goggles

October 29th, 2016, 3:41pm by Sam Wang

Tweet While the journalistic herd runs after the Comey/email story, I am out of step with information that is more likely to stay true after the weekend. Today in the New York Times, I ask: despite the emotional nature of this year’s race, why have polls of the Clinton-Trump race moved so little? The answer: […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Politics · President · Senate

Politics & Polls #18: The Religious Right

October 29th, 2016, 8:20am by Sam Wang

Since the 1970s, the religious right has been an important part of the Republican coalition. This year, this group has tied itself to Donald Trump. (Note to time travelers from the past: yes, it’s true.) Julian Zelizer and I talked about this group with our colleague Kevin Kruse, a professor of history who studies 20th-century […]

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Tags: Politics

Why did the polls seem so variable this week?

October 27th, 2016, 8:45pm by Sam Wang

Why do the polls seem so variable this week? The basic answer is that there were a lot of them. Outliers are an inevitable consequence. Trump is going on about three polls that he likes best. They are all favorable to him – IBD/TIPP, L.A.Times/USC/Dornsife, and Rasmussen. They show a tie or a small Trump […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #17: All The Way

October 26th, 2016, 8:57pm by Sam Wang

We took a break from the current political season to talk with Robert Schenkkan, who wrote the play “All The Way.” It’s the story of President Lyndon Johnson and his monumental effort in his first year in office to get the Civil Rights Act passed. This event fascinates me because of its importance for equality […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics

Florida Man Starts To Flag

October 25th, 2016, 10:33pm by Sam Wang

Last week I suggested that Senate polls might move toward Democrats, as part of their general pattern of following Presidential-race ups and downs. The Senate Meta-Margin has indeed ticked in that direction, driven by small movements toward Democratic candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire – and Florida??

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate

Service notice (RESOLVED)

October 24th, 2016, 9:07pm by Sam Wang

I’ve been lying low. It’s a busy time here at Princeton: undergraduate advising, graduate teaching, and it’s midterms week! I figured since the Presidential race is basically over, the urgency of posting was reduced. Also, I’m working on a newspaper piece. Anyway, I will be back soon with more bloggy goodness. For now, please ignore […]

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Tags: Site News

Politics & Polls #16: The Real Rigged Voting

October 20th, 2016, 11:20am by Sam Wang

Donald Trump has made it clear that if he loses on Nov. 8, it is because the election was “rigged.” He has warned that there might be widespread voter fraud that will favor Democrats. But does this threat have any basis in reality? Or is the real threat new voter identification laws that have the […]

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Tags: Princeton

It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue: Debate #3

October 19th, 2016, 8:02pm by Sam Wang

If you don’t believe me…yesterday, PaddyPower paid out its Clinton-to-win bets.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President