Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from September 20th, 2016

How Lies Live And Grow In The Brain – 2016 edition

September 20th, 2016, 7:30am by Sam Wang

In 2008, conservative email and websites propagated the false belief that Barack Obama came from somewhere other than his birthplace of Hawaii. In the New York Times in 2008, Sandra Aamodt and I addressed the neuroscience of why people came to adopt this belief. Now that Donald Trump is attempting to hide his five-year involvement […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics And Polls #11: Gender and the Presidency, with Rebecca Traister

September 16th, 2016, 9:39am by Sam Wang

On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I interview Rebecca Traister, whose profile of Hillary Clinton for New York magazine is the best profile of Clinton I have read this year. Traister is the author of All The Single Ladies: Unmarried Women and the Rise of an Independent Nation. Listen to […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Sometimes life comes at you fast

September 16th, 2016, 7:15am by Sam Wang

It looks like the Presidential state-poll snapshot is heading for a near-tie. This should become evident in the PEC analysis by the time of the first debate. I believe this will be a temporary situation. It will take at least until after the first debate on September 26th to find out. National polls currently show […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

The real news today…downticket

September 13th, 2016, 8:42am by Sam Wang

A journalist took the time to produce this — David Uberti (@DavidUberti) September 13, 2016 It is good for a cheap laugh to flay the media for its obsession with horserace. This week’s ongoing ruckus with Phlegm-ghazi confirms that reporters cannot get out of their mental rut of some older storyline. In this case, […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President · Senate

Find a competitive House race near you!

September 9th, 2016, 8:51am by Sam Wang

This year, Republicans are going to lose seats in the House of Representatives – this is certain. How many seats, we don’t know. As analyzed by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, their majority is protected by aggressive redistricting efforts in 2010 (see my Stanford Law Review article and David Daley’s book Ratf***ed) and […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House


September 7th, 2016, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Nervous about recent changes in polls? As usual, don’t pay attention to single surveys. However, it is true that the Presidential race has narrowed by a few percentage points; the median of national polls taken over the last week is Clinton +2%. PEC’s state poll-based analysis will probably continue to move toward Trump for at […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · House · Senate

What constitutes a good poll?

September 6th, 2016, 1:55pm by Sam Wang

Update: Natalie Jackson from HuffPost’s responds at the end of this post. Again I thank her for all that does. Holidays are over. I see that journalists, including poll aggregators, are still focused on the Presidential horserace. As Zenger at has pointed out, sites such as FiveThirtyEight are under economic pressure to […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President