Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from September 29th, 2016

Politics & Polls #13: The Alt-Right

September 29th, 2016, 3:36pm by Sam Wang

Julian Zelizer and I had the pleasure of interviewing historian Rick Perlstein on the subject of the “alt-right.” Fringe movements on the right have been around a long time, and Perlstein has studied these movements deeply, starting with his classic book Before The Storm. It was a fascinating conversation – take a listen.

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Tags: Politics

The incredibly stable 2016 campaign

September 29th, 2016, 1:10pm by Sam Wang

Like you, I am waiting for polls to come in. A reminder: the following measures will tend to move together: the Presidential Meta-Margin, the Senate Meta-Margin, the House generic Congressional ballot, and President Obama’s net approval. In the last day, the House and Obama numbers have moved toward Democrats. This year’s Presidential campaign has been […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Post-debate pundit spin lives up to its promise

September 28th, 2016, 12:12am by Sam Wang

Other than polls, focus groups, betting markets, financial markets, and downcast supporters, everything points to a big Trump win — James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) September 27, 2016 I have little to say about last night’s debate, except to point out that based on polls of undecided and independent voters, Clinton was seen as scoring a convincing […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Virginia is for statistics lovers

September 27th, 2016, 4:59am by Sam Wang

Today I head for Longwood University, site of next week’s vice-presidential debate, to talk about election math. If you’re anywhere near Farmville, come out and see what a great temperament I have. Tonight, Jarman Hall, 7:00pm.

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Tags: 2016 Election

In the eye of a hurricane there is quiet: Clinton/Trump debate thread

September 26th, 2016, 8:15pm by Sam Wang

A few days ago, the state-poll-based Meta-Analysis reached an extreme value of Clinton +1.4%. It has turned around, and today went to Clinton +2.4%. I don’t know if this turnaround will continue…but note that this is a pre-debate bounce. Get your panic on.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Three Reasons To Ignore Debate “Expectations”

September 26th, 2016, 12:15am by Sam Wang

Polls are likely to move after the debate. It is the moment when voters get to make a direct, side-by-side comparison of the two candidates. This may also be the last time for any significant shift in the race. Both before and after the debate, pundits will emit opinions about “expectations.” This commentary does not […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Today – WHYY Radio Times at 10am; on campus at noon

September 26th, 2016, 12:14am by Sam Wang

Today at 10:00am Eastern, I’ll be on WHYY-FM’s Radio Times with Mary Cummings-Jordan for an hour-long program on polls and the campaign. (Did you miss it? Archived here.) If you’re in the Princeton area, at noon I’ll be giving a talk in the American Politics Seminar. My focus will be this year’s race, polarization, and […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · Politics

Between Two Ferns: Zach Galifianakis interviews Hillary Clinton

September 23rd, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang

A bit strange.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls podcast #12 – How will debates move the race?

September 22nd, 2016, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

The first debate is Monday, Sept. 26, at 9 p.m. from Hofstra University in New York. This first debate could be the most-viewed in our history. (update: yup.) How might these debates influence voters? With presidential polls more favorable to Trump than their average for 2016, which way will they move afterward? Julian Zelizer and […]

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Tags: 2016 Election · President

Ipsos/Reuters rips off the Band-Aid

September 20th, 2016, 7:00pm by Sam Wang

In today’s 50-state release of data by Ipsos/Reuters, some have commented on the fact that some individual state results are not convincing. I take a different view: having so many data points at once is a gift.

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Tags: 2016 Election · President