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Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
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Politics and Polls #3: A Referendum on the Incumbent Party?

July 14th, 2016, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

In Politics & Polls #3 (podcast), Julian Zelizer and I talk about the extent to which the election is a referendum on the governing party…and who that might benefit. Courtesy of the Woodrow Wilson School.

[Politics & Polls on iTunes] [on SoundCloud]

Tags: 2016 Election · House · President

8 Comments so far ↓

  • 538 Refugee

    Interesting series. You have any numbers on listener-ship yet?

    • Sam Wang

      I’m told about 1,000 for each for the first two. I am told that is good, though is it really??

    • 538 Refugee

      Well, there are important things going on like Pokeymon Go. Maybe you can have a character inserted into the podcast? Probably 1K isn’t bad for an initial number though. Pandering for readership has never been your strong suit. ;)

    • anonymous

      I personally do not like video/audio in any print media, as I find it easier to read than to watch/listen. So I will gladly read a transcript of the conversation, but have not listened to a single podcast yet. I suspect there are more like me, but there also might be many many more with the inverse opinion. Perhaps it is just a matter of knowledge of their existence diffusing past a threshold to really start gaining listeners.

    • Kevin King

      I love the podcasts — I get much of my fix for my information junkiness from podcasts. :)

    • Eric

      I am also not a podcast person. I have a short commute, so there’s no good time to listen. I’d rather read. It’s much faster.

  • Richard Vance

    Sorry to comment in this particular thread. I don’t see a general comment thread on my phone.

    I know of polls past that were offvdue to the telephone effect, the wealthy. Then after cell phones it was the landline effect. Given the democratisation of social media I wonder if the sampling is way off. Age groups are sharply divided by gadget and app and at 67 even I don’t have a separate home phone. And I do not answer calls that care not in my contacts.

    Do you see anything there that may be fooling polls this cycle?

    Thank you for the work you do here.

  • A New Jersey Farmer

    I’m enjoying the podcasts. You two provide intelligent discussion about important issues. Having 1000 people listen is great at this point. I would think that number will go up as the election-only crowd comes back to PEC in August/September.

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