Princeton Election Consortium

…to talk about Iowa and beyond. Tune in! (Update: here it is.)

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May 5, 2016 – I never let this go live. Instead I kept writing. I have little willpower! I am publishing this for entertainment, and for the record. – Sam In the two major parties, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in very strong positions. At >40% levels of support, 6 out of 6 Republican […]

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Update: Reader Sourav takes a different view: “In this age it is hard for a Black Swan event to happen without any indication….People touting the ‘But Herman Cain was ahead this time 4 years ago’ theory were misreading the data. No one in 2012 had a consistent lead for so long. Trump has been the most […]

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About every fifty years, a major U.S. political party undergoes an upheaval. It’s graphically represented here by Randall Munroe, in what may be his finest chart. Molly Ball asks whether we are witnessing such an upheaval. A fine piece of reporting in The Atlantic. From comments, Kevin says:  The problem with the upheaval theory is […]

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…because it’s Friday night. Time for a break from serious analysis. Instead, some drinkin’ and brawlin’. Check out this amazing list from BitterEmpire.com.

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Since late December, polls have become predictive enough to point toward Trump as the eventual nominee. New in The American Prospect, I give a detailed analysis of the GOP Presidential delegate-assignment process. This analysis includes a simulation of how vote share translates to delegate share. My principal conclusion is that if his current levels of […]

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I don’t have the financial resources of ESPN/FiveThirtyEight. But I do have you, my dear readers! Let me cut-and-paste some of your recent remarks into a PEC chat. Edited for flow. Add your own two cents in the comment thread.

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