Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 14: Biden 376 EV (D+6.0% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.6%), House control D+8.0%
Moneyball states: President AK AR IA, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

2016 GOP primary polls, boundary county-based estimates, and Google Correlate estimates

Polls are medians of surveys in the last 1-3 weeks. as tracked at HuffPollster. Boundary county and Google Correlate-based  estimates are done using the method described here and further explained here.

The delegate estimate in the banner of this website is calculated using delegate rules as documented at The Green Papers and implemented using a custom MATLAB script. Its inputs are state polls where available. Where no polls are available, boundary-county-based estimates are used (at some point this may switch to Google Correlate-based estimates).

April 27