Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from December 31st, 2015

Happy New Year!

December 31st, 2015, 6:22pm by Sam Wang

Happy new year, all! Predictions for 2016, anyone? Ideally with some logical support, but oh heck, it’s New Year’s Eve – let your freak flag fly. Aspirations?

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Tags: Uncategorized

Attending oral arguments in Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission

December 20th, 2015, 11:39pm by Sam Wang

Dec. 25th: Updated with five more FantasySCOTUS predictions. The median outcome still favors the Commission, by a narrow 5-4 majority. In my NYT piece proposing statistical standards to detect partisan gerrymandering, I focused on Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, a current Supreme Court case [SCOTUSblog] [Blog for Arizona]. On December 8th I attended oral […]

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Tags: Redistricting

The effect of gerrymandering in four states exceeds that of population clustering in all 50 states

December 8th, 2015, 7:00am by Sam Wang

My New York Times piece was specifically focused on the legal question of what a party-neutral standard should look like. It didn’t address the political question: where do such deviations come from? As it turns out, the answer is: post-2010, partisan redistricting accounts for more than half of the total asymmetry in the House. The […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Can Math Help Save Democracy?

December 5th, 2015, 10:41am by Sam Wang

In the┬áNew York Times I have a piece in the Sunday Review, “Let Math Save Our Democracy.” It describes some simple statistical standards for partisan gerrymandering, and how they might resolve an upcoming Supreme Court case (Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission) quickly and definitively. It’s based on my law article, “A Three-Prong Standard for […]

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Tags: Redistricting

Redistricting battles everywhere

December 4th, 2015, 10:27pm by Sam Wang

Bloomberg Politics has an excellent interactive on redistricting battles (ht/ to reader bks). While we’re on the topic, make sure to read the New York Times this weekend. I have a piece on gerrymandering standards in the Sunday Review section. Other entertainment: here’s a cool general-election demographic simulator by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman.

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Tags: 2016 Election · Redistricting