Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from November 26th, 2015

Happy Thanksgiving!

November 26th, 2015, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

I know it’s a time for people to come together, eat, and get into conversation. Sometimes things can get contentious. Here’s a primer on What To Say To Your Frequentist Uncle. Lots of good stuff there, including a question on what “never” means. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Update:

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Tags: Uncategorized

Two Cheers for Ohio Redistricting Reform

November 4th, 2015, 10:16am by Sam Wang

Yesterday, Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved Issue 1, an initiative that sets up a bipartisan commission to oversee redistricting of state legislative districts. This is a great step in combating gerrymandering. However, there are some fine points that have to be resolved for it to work well.

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Tags: Redistricting

Offering a new standard for gerrymandering to the Supreme Court

November 2nd, 2015, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Today, I filed a friend-of-the-court brief in the Harris v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission case (S. Ct. 14-232). The brief can be found here (for a summary of other briefs, see the Arizona Eagletarian blog). In it, I argue that the Supreme Court should reject Harris’s case on the grounds that there was no […]

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Tags: House · Politics · Redistricting