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Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

What does probability mean to a journalist?

September 25th, 2015, 5:23pm by Sam Wang

From Math with Bad Drawings comes┬áthis gem, depicting what probability means to a political journalist. “The threat is real.” Heh.

There’s a whole series of such drawings. Check them out!

Tags: 2016 Election

6 Comments so far ↓

  • Amitabh Lath

    The captain of the Millennium Falcon is a true Bayesian.

    • bks

      I tried doing one for bioinformatics but I couldn’t fit 500 categories to the left of 10^-50.

    • Matt McIrvin

      Hokey distributions and bad priors are no match for a good blaster at your side.

  • SF Bays

    Thanks for the chuckle.

  • bks

    A friend who I sent the link to tells me of the “Theory of Possibility” which he learned in Control Theory at Carnegie Mellon. For example: What is the possibility that a plane will crash if your single point of failure fails? The possibility is one.

  • mediaglyphic

    totally off topic, but has anyone done analysis on the Canadian election? I have not been checking here so i might have missed some posts.

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