Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from July 20th, 2015

Is Donald Trump Really The Frontrunner?

July 20th, 2015, 1:18pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Conventional horserace polls put him in first or second place. However, these single-choice polls are a terrible way to tell who is likely to make it in a field of 16 candidates. Today in The New Republic, I argue that horserace polls are asking the wrong question. Instead, a more elaborate method – instant […]

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Tags: 2016 Election