Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 09: Biden 375 EV (D+6.3% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.8%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from July 20th, 2015

Is Donald Trump Really The Frontrunner?

July 20th, 2015, 1:18pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Conventional horserace polls put him in first or second place. However, these single-choice polls are a terrible way to tell who is likely to make it in a field of 16 candidates. Today in The New Republic, I argue that horserace polls are asking the wrong question. Instead, a more elaborate method – instant […]

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Tags: 2016 Election