Princeton Election Consortium

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Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Election Night liveblogging, 7:00PM

November 4th, 2014, 7:09pm by Sam Wang

See below the fold for older commentary. The most recent comment will appear up top.

8:40pm: The Upshot has projected counts. For now, use those for your Geek’s Guide. Shaheen (D-NH) around +5% and McConnell (R-KY) around +13%, both ahead of their pre-election polls. Ambiguous for estimating Delta.

8:27pm: Reader Forrest asked me how The Upshot estimates vote share from partial returns. I can’t say what they are doing, but look at Jay Boice’s HuffPollster calculation. Basically take the prior history of the state, county by county (or whatever level of granularity you have available). Then slide over all the counts in past comparable elections, and see how each county would have to break in order to reach a 50-50 tie. Use that as an over/under, i.e. calculate whether a candidate is over/underperforming that expectation. Then do a weighted average across counties. That is an estimator of the margin between candidates.

8:17pm: Virginia Senate race looking close. But recall that in 2012, Romney led Obama until around midnight. This is going to take a while.

7:44pm: Everyone, please note: rural areas tend to come in earlier. That means early returns will tilt GOP. That’s not so useful for projecting results.

7:38pm: Kentucky’s projecting around McConnell+7% at the moment, close to polls. Actually, less sure. Stand by…

Virginia counts are screwy. Might be technical errors on the ground there.

7:06pm: CNN has called Kentucky for McConnell (R). It is too early to say whether he ran ahead or behind the pre-election polls of McConnell +7.5 +/- 0.6%. If he does, it will be by a few percentage points either way.

Commenter Chandra says CNN has McConnell+17%. Don’t pay attention to those raw counts! Uncorrected, that’s of no use in estimating the final margin. I think it will come in super-close to pre-election polls.

Tags: 2014 Election

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