Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Postscript on nerdery and throwing shade

September 9th, 2014, 4:32pm by Sam Wang

A brief followup to the post below.

The people who need the most instruction in probability are not the fine people at FiveThirtyEight, but rather certain journalists who follow them. The political situation is uncertain. That nuance is hard to capture. My sense is that many reporters (and readers) take a probability of 51% and mentally round it up to 100%. This is a mistake.

At the moment, it’s important to avoid getting sucked into that kind of thinking. Going forward, I’ll try to emphasize measures that I think capture the race better – such as the Senate Meta-Margin, which shows how close the race really is!

And now, back to the analysis…

Tags: 2014 Election

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