Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from August 30th, 2014

Brief update

August 30th, 2014, 7:33am by Sam Wang

Thanks for your feedback. The comment thread from the previous post clarified my thinking. Drew Linzer dropped in! Also, welcome to Rachel Maddow viewers. The banner at the top of the page gives the poll-based “snapshot probability” for who would end up controlling the Senate based on an election held today. Based on PEC’s track […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Senate Democrats are outperforming expectations

August 28th, 2014, 9:42am by Sam Wang

[Note: this  is a work in progress. I’m basically seeking comment as I develop a November predictive model. Please give your feedback… -Sam] I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

Could a Kansas independent shift control of the Senate?

August 27th, 2014, 2:36pm by Sam Wang

Normally, both Kansas Senate seats are deep red: one’s been Republican since Franklin Roosevelt was President, and the other one dates back to Woodrow Wilson. So it’s not surprising that even though incumbent Senator Pat Roberts has an abysmal 27% job approval rating, polls indicate that he would still beat his Democratic opponent, Chad Taylor. […]

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate

GOP governors pay a price for blocking the ACA

August 22nd, 2014, 9:36pm by Sam Wang

It’s a part of the GOP mantra to oppose the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in all its forms. But does that pay off at the local level? I’ve been analyzing governor’s races around the country, and I found a surprise. I wrote about it today for The New Yorker.

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Tags: 2014 Election · Politics

A wave election…or a ripple?

August 19th, 2014, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

The chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee is confident that this November he expects a wave election. Is this true…or political trash talk? I weigh in at The New Yorker. It’s my first piece for them. Check it out!

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Tags: 2014 Election · House · Politics · Senate

Why you’re wrong to get excited about “60%”

August 4th, 2014, 2:35pm by Sam Wang

Some people are excited (positively or negatively) about Nate Silver’s column today giving a probability of a GOP takeover at 60%. To cut to the chase: I do not think that number means what you think it does.

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Tags: 2014 Election · Senate