Of the 36 Senate seats up for election, up to nine of them have been worth watching closely. These races will determine who controls the Senate. Over the last month a few seem to have dropped out of consideration. Now, with a new burst of polling, the playing field – at least for now – […]
Entries from July 30th, 2014
With Perdue in, Nunn now an underdog (GA-Sen)
July 23rd, 2014, 11:08am by Sam Wang
Nate Cohn chose today to drop his story on how demographic trends bring Georgia surprisingly within reach for Democrats. I guess that is true, but the timing is funny. The race was close to begin with, and then yesterday’s primary was a boost for the GOP. In my view, that is the real story. Like […]
Tags: 2014 Election · Senate
Just how close is the 2014 Senate race?
July 18th, 2014, 4:06pm by Sam Wang
In my last update, some of you commented that the 2014 Senate race had swung by a lot since May. That is not true! I think perceptions were colored by my emphasis on the snapshot probability. Today, let me take a different tack. This year, control of the Senate will be closely fought. At the […]
Tags: 2004 Election · 2014 Election · President · Senate
Senate control: Three factors to watch in 2014
July 14th, 2014, 4:22pm by Sam Wang
Here (in beta-test version) is the Senate polling snapshot for this year so far.
Tags: 2014 Election · Senate
Beta test: Senate snapshot 12 July 2014
July 12th, 2014, 10:06am by Sam Wang
Greetings, everyone. This is for hardcore readers. I’m going to dispense with bells and whistles. We’re building things, so I’m not very chatty! I just thought I’d show you where things are at. Bottom line, Democrats have a 55% chance of control in an election held today. That is as close to a toss-up as […]
Tags: 2014 Election · Senate
The Dog That Didn’t Bark (AR-Sen)
July 10th, 2014, 11:39pm by Sam Wang
Today, the NYT’s Nate Cohn speculates about the problem of low-quality polls in Senate races. It’s an interesting piece with lots for poll junkies. However, I am compelled to offer several gentle corrections. My bottom line: polls are better than he implies, especially when they are aggregated properly. And Senator Pryor (D-AR) is probably a […]
Tags: 2012 Election · 2014 Election
Race and mental traits: Nicholas Wade’s third error
July 8th, 2014, 11:41pm by Sam Wang
An octogenarian once invited me to his old, exclusive East Coast club to give a talk about neuroscience, my area of specialty. Afterwards, as we walked past oil portraits of old white men across the centuries, the octogenarian pulled me aside, lowered his voice and asked, “I was wondering if you could explain something. What […]
