This year, the big political question is who will control the Senate in 2015. I’ve analyzed this briefly and will continue to do so in the coming months. As of the end of June, it’s looking like Democrats/Independents (who vote together) and Republicans are likely to win 47 seats each. The remaining six races are currently […]
Princeton Election Consortium
Innovations in democracy since 2004
Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Moneyball: U.S. Senate
Democrats (U.S. Senate):
Republicans (U.S. Senate):
Senate and House 2020
Senate:
View all statesState Margin Voter Power MT Bullock +1.0 100.0 ME Gideon +2.5 63.4 AK Sullivan +3.0 59.8 IA Greenfield +2.0 24.6 MS Hyde-Smith +3.0 17.5 GA Ossoff +1.2 13.7
House:
Code on Github
Output (data) GraphicsSam’s Brain Books
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President 2020
About the model
All graphs at once
EV estimator over time:
Meta-margin above toss-up:
Single-state probabilities (including +/-3% alternatives):
View all statesState Margin Voter Power AZ Biden +3.0 100.0 NE-2 Biden +4.5 92.7 NV Biden +6.0 83.0 ME-2 Biden +3.0 78.3 NC Biden +2.0 64.3 PA Biden +5.0 60.0 FL Biden +3.0 53.0 GA Biden +1.5 52.3 NJ Biden +19.4 2e-06
Code on Github
Output (data) GraphicsRedistricting Moneyball (and 50-State Guides)
- Redistricting Moneyball: key legislative races
- Moneyball explainer and video
- PEC's 50 State Guide to 2020
- Taniel's What's on the Ballot?
- Better Know A Ballot
- National Early Voting Tracker
Republicans (redistricting):
