This year, the big political question is who will control the Senate in 2015. I’ve analyzed this briefly and will continue to do so in the coming months. As of the end of June, it’s looking like Democrats/Independents (who vote together) and Republicans are likely to win 47 seats each. The remaining six races are currently […]
Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004
Jul 07: Biden 375 EV (D+6.8% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC
House and Senate 2020
House:
Senate:
Code on GithubState Margin Voter Power MT Bullock +3.5 100.0 KS Bollier +1.0 73.5 ME Gideon +4.0 72.2 IA Greenfield +2.5 58.8 KY Tie +0.0 36.9 NC Cunningham +2.0 20.2
Data and outputsThe Princeton Gerrymandering Project
Brain Books by Sam
Electoral index funds
Democrats (redistricting):
Republicans (redistricting and U.S. Senate):
Democrats (U.S. Senate):
President 2020
EV estimator over time
Meta-margin above toss-up:
All data and outputsState Margin Voter Power AR Trump +2.0 100.0 IA Trump +1.0 81.0 AZ Biden +4.0 72.4 NH Trump +2.0 58.9 OH Biden +1.0 57.1 GA Biden +2.0 49.9 NJ Biden +19.0 0.0
