For those of you coming here from the NYT, welcome! If you’re interested in drilling into the scientific literature, I’ve archived some articles here. Note: if you’re having trouble getting the links from the NYT piece to work, the link above has all the correct files. Basically the NYT site messed up the “~” character […]
Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004
Jul 07: Biden 375 EV (D+6.8% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC
House and Senate 2020
House:
Senate:
Code on GithubState Margin Voter Power MT Bullock +3.5 100.0 KS Bollier +1.0 73.5 ME Gideon +4.0 72.2 IA Greenfield +2.5 58.8 KY Tie +0.0 36.9 NC Cunningham +2.0 20.2
Data and outputsThe Princeton Gerrymandering Project
Brain Books by Sam
Electoral index funds
Democrats (redistricting):
Republicans (redistricting and U.S. Senate):
Democrats (U.S. Senate):
President 2020
EV estimator over time
Meta-margin above toss-up:
All data and outputsState Margin Voter Power AR Trump +2.0 100.0 IA Trump +1.0 81.0 AZ Biden +4.0 72.4 NH Trump +2.0 58.9 OH Biden +1.0 57.1 GA Biden +2.0 49.9 NJ Biden +19.0 0.0
