Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from January 30th, 2013

Gerrymandering notes: how many votes to take House, 1992-2012

January 30th, 2013, 12:28am by Sam Wang

Dear PEC Readers, we’re going casual tonight. This is for frequent visitors and those of you on the RSS feed. I’ll explain…

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis

Reince’s plan, Carrico’s folly

January 25th, 2013, 8:59am by Sam Wang

Here’s an article by Steve Coll on gerrymandering in the New Yorker. The subject is not dying away – quite the opposite. Some of you thought that the effect I have detected – antidemocratic outcomes in PA, OH, MI, NC, VA, FL, and IN in 2012… …was somehow peculiar to their population patterns. I’ve been […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Politics · Redistricting

The mailbag

January 5th, 2013, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

Gerrymandering makes for interesting mail! Here are some excerpts from activists, a journalist, political scientist, and a few redistricters.

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting · Site News

Environmental lead (Pb) and crime

January 4th, 2013, 6:30pm by Sam Wang

At Mother Jones, Kevin Drum has an in-depth article on the hypothesis that environmental lead  is a likely root cause of the increase in crime a generation ago. Even more importantly, removal of lead from gasoline may be responsible for the decrease in crime in the last few decades. Last night, Kevin and I discussed these ideas […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Gerrymandering code – for the do-it-yourselfers

January 3rd, 2013, 10:43am by Sam Wang

For the true hardcore…A version of the MATLAB code I used is now available.

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Meta-analysis · Politics · Redistricting

Gerrymanders, Part 2: How many voters were disenfranchised?

January 2nd, 2013, 2:32pm by Sam Wang

(Welcome, redditors! And for the hardcore nerds…) Redistricting is a large and sometimes arcane subject. Take a look at the comments section for the last post. Some of you are quite knowledgeable on the subject. Others are new to it. Before I continue, I’ll lay out some basics, and explain what it is about this problem […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Politics · Redistricting