Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Geek’s Guide to the Election 2012

November 6th, 2012, 5:20pm by Sam Wang

I’ve made a simple guide for tracking the election. It’s at geeks-guide-2012-b.pdf. My two pieces of advice are:

  • Ignore exit polls and large states.
  • Watch New Hampshire (expectation: Obama +3%) (CNN) (

I’ll use this post to list some resources. I’ll update this on the fly – check back now and then. Or leave your own in comments.

I actually don’t like Election Night that much – too much noise, not enough signal…and not nearly enough MATLAB. But should I liveblog anyway? Or more accurately, open a comment thread so you can liveblog…


Election returns: New York TimesCNN, Associated Press,

Presidential scenario trackers. Automatic tabulation of the victory scenarios for Obama and Romney. Web tools: app by  Kumars app by Cohen. If those don’t work, try this Excel file ElecVote2_revised (740 kb).

Early voting site (Mike McDonald).

Liveblogging by the human InTrade (Andrew Sullivan).

Recount rules from the Brennan Center for Justice.

NorCalGuy’s itinerary for the evening. A good assortment!

Feed your fears: Highest risk of E-voting meltdowns, at Freedom To Tinker (Ed Felten).

Sam Wang’s first predictions, Take 1 and Take 2, and a prediction challenge.

In case I am wrong about Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Ohio: ThailandUnique.

What I care about for the new Congress: filibuster reform.

District and precinct level voting histories at the Stanford Election Atlas.

Tags: 2012 Election · President

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