Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Comment thread #3 – live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 11:14pm by Sam Wang

11:39pm: Commenters are pointing out Karl Rove being thrown under the bus by Megyn Kelly. He’s still doing his sums, arguing a Romney victory in Ohio is possible. Wow. Just wow. (1) Anger, (2) Denial, (3) Bargaining…holy Kuebler-Ross.

11:34pm: Randall Munroe just texted me “BREAKING: Numbers continue to be best tool for determining which of two things is larger.”

11:33pm: To summarize what we have so far: Obama re-elected, Democratic gains in Senate, maybe tiny gains in House. Not so far from where we’ve been for the last few years. So…how to avoid gridlock? While you’re absorbing all this, write to your Senator and encourage filibuster reform. This is the #1, #2, and #3 issue that must be addressed in the new Congress. There will be no progress without a rule change.

11:21pm: No bugs for me!

11:19pm: Fox News declared Obama the winner, then started attacking him. I guess the honeymoon’s over.

11:15pm: NBC just called Ohio for Obama. That’s it! 275 EV. What will be the final outcome – 303 or 332 EV? Florida is making it look like 332 EV. I guess Virginia is still up in the air, but I think it will go to Obama by morning.

11:13pm: They’re alternating between rambling and morose at Fox. Comedy Central is more fun.

Tags: 2012 Election

191 Comments so far ↓

  • Dgarr

    Sam and Andrew you are the BEST! This is a great day in our country’s history. I have also enjoyed all of the comments here. A great group of people. Thank you! FORWARD!

  • Steven Powell

    Sam, I have taken such great satisfaction from reading your posts. Strong work, man!

  • Olav Grinde

    Dear Sam — I’m immensely grateful for everything you’ve done here. Thank you so much for all your lucid analysis, always enlightening and more than often entertaining.

  • WiggleWorm

    Fox News is hilarious – disputing the Ohio results.

    • WiggleWorm

      Far better than Comedy Central.

    • Steve in Colorado

      They could have held off on calling it…
      Would have been a classier move than immediately calling voter fraud

    • Quentin

      They are disputing the Ohio results because they contradict Karl Rove, a.k.a the guy with “the math”. You’re right, it’s the most entertaining thing on TV tonight.

    • Matthew M

      It really is funny. Rove is babbling about individual counties in Ohio and carping against the Fox News decision desk for calling the state.

      To Rove’s credit, he obviously isn’t even taking himself seriously at this point. He’s being paid to talk, and that’s what he’s doing.

  • Richard Vance

    Sam, Thank you. Get a good night’s sleep. Over and Out.

  • Emerald

    Thank you Sam! You kept me sane.

    Science. It works.

  • Bill N

    Karl Rove says Ohio has been called in error.

    • eigenperson

      Karl Rove is a partisan spin doctor and a clown.

      That’s not to say that he’s definitely wrong about Ohio, but it does mean there is no reason to listen to anything he says, let alone believe it.

    • Dave in Tulsa

      Karl was getting his vote total information by hitting refresh on the SoS website? How does a news organization as big as Fox not have someone with a direct feed into the SoS office?

    • grandpa john

      guess he is just like the media, they all seem to have forgot about NV and CO huh?

  • Patrick

    Sam, you kept me sane

  • Venkat Ranganathan

    Great work in creating this model. Thanks for keeping this in the right perspective when the whole media was interested in generating news

  • DaveM

    BTW, Obama is now leading in VA.

    • grandpa john

      Thanks, since the media seems to think that VA, NV , or CO no longer exist and therefore updates on the vote counts there is not necessary,. I have been looking for almost AN HOUR for any updates on these states.

  • Marty

    Just adding my GREAT BIG THANKS to you for helping me keep sane, keep focused, keep using the brain as operative organ instead of the gut. AND I had a lot of fun with the Presidential Results Tracker…made my husband and son-in-law call out projected margins and stare at my graph with me…of course the graph still needs some work! Will keep on it.

    You are the Princeton Pied Piper, Dr Sam…

  • Grateful

    Colorado = new meaning to Rocky Mountain High

  • Steve in Colorado

    Might not know FL or VA for a while- but hopefully they’ll call CO soon so I can go to bed.
    Too bad about CO-6, had lunch with Joe Miklosi on Friday and he seemed to be a great guy.

  • Neil S

    Chaos at FOx News! Infighting!

  • Subu Vdaygiri

    Although I love mathematical models, I think the key to Obama’s win is – supreme court not overturning Obamacare. If they had done so, it would have been the most disruptive event of the election. So Obama owes Justice Robert quite a bit.

    • Missiv

      We all know neither Romney or Pres. Obama won or lost on their own. ACA was always a feather in the cap, even to Mitt Romney before he was against it.

      Thank you Sam, for all your hard work. It’s been a pleasure discovering and reading your site.

  • Slob Jones

    Nate Silver who?

  • Howie Weiner

    Karl Rove is imploding on national TV. It is amazing!!

  • Khan

    Fox is throwing Karl Rove under the bus on live TV. This is incredible TV.

  • Ross C

    Oh man, Karl Rove is sticking with his Maths, and arguing Ohio! The blonde hostess had to walk through a labyrinth to reach Fox Decision Desk, where they explained their real math that gives Ohio to Obama. Watching her go down those endless hallways reminded me of Spinal Tap.

    Apparently Romney is refusing to concede based on this Ohio pipe dream. Classy to the end.

    • grandpa john

      well they finally called NV for Obama, when they get around to CO , it will make Rove and bunch even more idiotic looking since CO’s 9 would put him over and he is also ahead in both VA and FL

    • Peter Principle

      There’s a reason why he’s called Turdblossom.

  • Tommyfw

    I want to thank Dr. Sam Wang and company for getting me through the last several months. Even with all the math backing up what was transpiring in front of us the pucker factor was high.

    This site was literally a daily stop from May on. You guys rock!

    • Ray Umashankar

      In order to avoid “Wang Withdrawal” let’s get busy with Filibuster reform!

  • Elizabeth

    Words fail me.The future is brighter for my daughters.
    Bless you,Sam for this site!

  • Bruce R Morgan

    Dear Sam
    Thank you for bringing sanity and science to a very important process.
    You have been Shedding Light instead of Heat on a big event.

    Many thanks again .
    Cheers and Best Regards
    Bruce Ross Morgan

    • Mckittrick

      Seriously, the last 10 minutes of Fox News have been 10 minutes for the ages.

  • Matt McIrvin says Norfolk, VA is still only 39% in. That’s all Obama margin to come.

  • Loudoun

    Obama now up by 40K in Virginia

  • Jun Talabucon

    Great work Dr. Wang… you kept us sane..! :-D

  • martin boutte

    Thanks Sam, if the numbers did’nt add up we might all have been tossed, collectively, into a connipition of mathematical apoplexia. Take a bow!

  • WiggleWorm

    The Rove meltdown continues on Fox. Compelling TV.

  • Frank Lundy

    Thank You Sam! You made all those statistics courses worth while! Hey, on your behalf, I’ll pass out some W(h)ine tomorrow!

  • Neil S

    Rove is persisting! This is incredible and hilarious!

    • WiggleWorm

      Talk about noise to signal ratio. Jeez.

    • Bill

      Karl Rove is worried that Adelson and the Koch brothers are going to demand a refund of the monies they have funneled through him on the basis of his assurances.

  • mlhradio

    NBC reports that the Romney campaign is refusing to concede, believes they can still win in Ohio.

    Cue Monty Python and the “I’m not dead yet!” skit.

  • Neil S

    Jon Stewart will have a field day.

  • GjGr

    Sam, you are the man!!! What a great day this is. Data doesn’t lie, science takes the day. Thank you!

  • Froggy

    Time to shift attention to the remaining Senate races. Heidi Heitkamp is clinging to a narrow lead in ND, and Jon Tester has a lead in MT, but with a lot left to count.

    • theDAWG

      I might stay up late for the Heitkamp/Tester results. I’m invested due to the PEC/ActBlue…

  • Grateful

    Romney’s not conceding Ohio?


    but I guess if I were in his shoes, I would probably do the same thing…

  • KSingh

    My second comment on this website: Dr. Wang, in the midst of all the media noise and hoopla generated by likes of Fox News etc., your website has been a oasis of calm, logic, reason and statistics. I love statistics!!!! Hats off to you sir..

  • Grateful

    BBC calls Nevada for Obama.

  • Bill N

    Colorado called for Obama.

  • Khan

    Romney is refusing to concede. This is getting insane.

  • Matt McIrvin

    If Romney wants to fight this he’s going to have to contest Ohio, Florida AND Virginia. And probably Colorado.

  • WiggleWorm

    Charles Krauthammer just offered to write anti-depressant Rx’s for Fox News watchers…you can’t make this stuff up! Hi-larious!

  • Anon

    Now that the meltdown on Fox has subsided somewhat, the take appears to be that Romney was too liberal … I wish I could say this shocks me.

  • don in fl

    ohio sos didnt call it for obama. better wait .really need ia co nv. are they all in?

  • virag

    It’s a pretty good night for everybody when it’s a really bad night for Republicans. Fox News just imploded, I think. Wicked fun to watch.

  • Grateful

    Jon Sopel @ BBC says Obama is widening lead in VA to 1%.

  • Michael NC

    Rove is about to fight it out with the Fox number crunchers!
    I’m selling tickets!

  • Marvel

    Thank you, sir. Like many others have already posted, you have helped to keep me sane these past few weeks. My hat is off to you for your work.

  • Subu Vdaygiri

    Dr., I don’t agree on filibuster reform. I think that is the best weapon against tyranny of the majority. Let us, for instance, say the congress and presidency went to Republicans. The first action that Romney would have done is repeal ObamaCare. Despite the huge margin of electoral win for Obama, still the country likes the government rule in the middle and filibuster is the best to moderate extreme views of either party.

    • neanderpaul

      Except the filibuster is the means by which the extreme views of a minority are able to grind all progress to a halt completely. The filibuster is a weapon that should be used sparingly, it is not. It’s history has been one of minority parties or views using it to hold back progress they didn’t approve of. It was that way when Strom Thurman used it, it’s that way now.

    • Subu Vdaygiri

      Paul, I do agree that tiny minority can hold back progress. But then there are elections. As we saw, tea party got routed this year. Next time around, republican party (if it has learnt its lessons and come to its senses), won’t let couple of members hold back major legislation that majority support.

    • Toomasz

      @ Subu

      We had something stronger than your filibuster:
      it was thought as a mean to defend democracy but basically destroyed our republic.
      BTW Thanks Sam. Another triumph of the nerds. Still, bugs could are quite nutrious, they have proteins. Maybe Rove, Barone, and some other “pundits” should eat some.

    • DJ

      In the old days, in order to filibuster, you actually had to stand in the chamber and keep talking indefinitely for hours and hours until you outlasted the opposition. In fact this is what the word filibuster means. Somewhere along the line, that requirement has been abolished, and nowadays a filibuster can be sustained simply by courtesy. All we have to do is re-introduce the requirement to, you know, actually filibuster. This would make filibusters a lot rarer and solve a big part of the problem.

  • Bill N

    Obama up to 290 at Huff Post.

  • Loudoun

    With 95% of VA precincts reporting, Obama now leads 49.5-48.5

  • Bill N

    Apparently Trump is calling for a revolution since Obama won.

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