Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Comment thread #3 – live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 11:14pm by Sam Wang

11:39pm: Commenters are pointing out Karl Rove being thrown under the bus by Megyn Kelly. He’s still doing his sums, arguing a Romney victory in Ohio is possible. Wow. Just wow. (1) Anger, (2) Denial, (3) Bargaining…holy Kuebler-Ross.

11:34pm: Randall Munroe just texted me “BREAKING: Numbers continue to be best tool for determining which of two things is larger.”

11:33pm: To summarize what we have so far: Obama re-elected, Democratic gains in Senate, maybe tiny gains in House. Not so far from where we’ve been for the last few years. So…how to avoid gridlock? While you’re absorbing all this, write to your Senator and encourage filibuster reform. This is the #1, #2, and #3 issue that must be addressed in the new Congress. There will be no progress without a rule change.

11:21pm: No bugs for me!

11:19pm: Fox News declared Obama the winner, then started attacking him. I guess the honeymoon’s over.

11:15pm: NBC just called Ohio for Obama. That’s it! 275 EV. What will be the final outcome – 303 or 332 EV? Florida is making it look like 332 EV. I guess Virginia is still up in the air, but I think it will go to Obama by morning.

11:13pm: They’re alternating between rambling and morose at Fox. Comedy Central is more fun.

Tags: 2012 Election

191 Comments so far ↓

  • SoleburyJim

    Not conceding Ohio despite all the evidence to the contrary…such a perfect reflection of Romney’s character.

    • WiggleWorm

      I hope Karl Rove doesn’t hurt himself if he loses his balance backpedalling so hard.

    • grandpa john

      CNN showed a map of OH and VA of counties that are not completely counted, they are all counties that are going to Obama by large margins. So Rove and Romneys childish temper tantrums are all for nought.l

  • Alan

    What can I–or anyone else–say? You da stats man! Heartiest congratulations! Prepare for major praise (and scrutiny)! Long live the meta-analysis!

  • Grateful

    Did Jon Tester win his race? (Montana)

  • Bob Castleman

    While I think the good professor has earned a day off, I am really looking forward to his post-mortem and how close his numbers ended up. There is nothing like solid analysis to cut through the crap of political spin. I’m hoping that this type of objective work becomes a new gold standard for future elections. Maybe then all the talking heads will say less, listen more, and we can start electing problem solvers instead of ideologues.

  • Falsifypopperism

    The Rove meltdown is the best thing I have ever seen!

    • Mikey Armstrong

      That reminded me of the old guys on Trading Places asking to turn the trading machines back on.

    • Grateful

      I don’t have Fox, so let us know when it’s on YouTube…

  • MK

    Wow. Sam, thanks SO MUCH for all of your work. It’s hilarious that anybody doubted you or Nate, but I guess it comes with the territory. Congrats everybody.

  • Brian

    Cheers, and a hearty congratulations! It has me smiling so see logic and reason triumph. Thank you.

  • Dean

    I looked at the counties in Ohio and didnt’t see much there for Romney. Outstanding counties really favor Obama.

    • Froggy

      Agree, the biggest things still out in Ohio are in the counties that include Toledo, Cleveland, and Akron.

  • PatM

    Thank you for calming me during this insane election season. You were right on, and deserve much more credit than whathisname at the NYT.

  • don in fl

    huffington post shows obama romney tied with 280 of vote in.49.2 -49.2

  • don in fl

    not 280 80% of vote in.

  • Howie Weiner

    Thanks Sam you are a voice of sanity in this crazy world. Numbers and science matter. Your meta-margin graphs should be studied in every school in the country. Really appreciate your efforts.

    On a lighter note the last hour or so on Fox news will supply fodder for countless hours of Comedy Central. It was truly priceless. I must stay up for the President’s victory speech and also for Mitten’s concession speech. That will certainly be fun.
    Thank you Mr. President this was a campaign for the ages!

  • squidmaster

    It’s interesting that many commentators (I’m listening to NPR while surfing the web) still refer to ‘…a race to close to call this morning’, while the states are breaking along the modelers’ predictions.

  • John

    Is Ohio going to be the 2000 Florida of 2012? Did NBC call it too soon.

    Current results have Romney up 0.5% with 82.4% reporting …

    • HorseIsAHorse

      The red counties in Ohio are almost 100% in. The HEAVILY blue counties are not. Ohio’s blue.

    • Matthew M

      It can’t be the “Florida of 2012” because it’s no longer material to the outcome of the election. Ohio is about padding the EV at this point — period.

  • ladorissima

    From the deepest part of my heart I thank you for your sublime humor and the exquisite work that you do that has kept me (and dozens of friends) sane over the past few months.

  • David

    Don’t get rid of the bug yet. But it looks like you won’t have to in the end.

  • Matthew M

    A quick note: Pro-marriage equality ballot initiatives in all four states (WA, MN, MD, ME) are passing. Comfortable margins in ME and WA, slimmer but still decent margins in the other two.

    I’m pleased to see that the tide has turned on this issue so decisively.

  • Olav Grinde

    1600 Pennsylvania Avenue — the one house in America that Mr Willard Mitt Romney & Co couldn’t buy.

  • Falsifypopperism

    Romney still refuses to acknowledge his outcome! What an awful losing candidate!

    • John

      Give him a break! He’s dedicated something like the last 7 years of his life to this.

      We won, the battle is over. No need to be personally vicious.

  • Kevin

    Nicely done Dr. Wang.

  • Bill Ricker

    Thanks Sam. And Nate and Drew and Andy and Andrew. And Randall.

  • Greg P

    Thanks again Dr Wang and the ECP team. Precise and accurate! Nice.

  • Kenneth W. Regan

    I agree with Subu Vdaygiri on the importance of SCOTUS upholding Obamacare for the election.

  • Darth

    Ohio just turned pink. You might still end up with a very big bug.

    • Westy

      On what site? Seems the big D counties are the ones waiting to report

    • Matthew M

      Ohio can turn blood red if it wants. It still won’t change the election at this point.

    • John

      It was red on the NYT. At 82.4% reporting, Romney was up 0.5%, but now at 86.7% it’s flipped back to 0.5% Obama up.

    • Darth

      OK, I knew Obama was ahead in FL, but I really wanted to see Sam eating a real big bug. For a moment, I saw Ohio turning pinky. Too bad that it went back to blue again.

  • Sam Wang

    New comment thread.

  • Paul Sloan

    I cannot thank you all enough, you all allowed me to keep my sanity through this media driven insanity.

  • Neil S

    Thanks Sam! Although expected, its still nice to see math/stats paying off.

  • Amitabh Lath

    So some close downticket races went D.
    I wonder how much R money that would have flowed downticket if Romney had been given up for dead (as he almost was, post conventions and post 47% remark).

    But instead, debate#1, and Romney shows some life, and big donors flock to top of ticket. And in the critical period where some real money could have helped the Scott Browns, nada.

    Rope-a-dope? Broken-wing fake? Only team Chicago knows.

    • TAW

      The Republican candidate in Illinois 10th had more money than god. After Citizens United, no viable Republican was under funded.

  • TAW

    Illinois 10th is beyond belief.

    @9:16 pm

    “Fending off a strong and costly attack from Democratic rival Brad Schneider, Republican Robert Dold was on his way to winning a second term in the U.S. House on Tuesday.
    With votes in 397 of 419 precincts counted, unofficial results showed Dold is holding onto the 10th District seat he first won two years ago.
    Dold, of Kenilworth, had 90,496 votes, or nearly 52 percent, results showed. Schneider, of Deerfield, had 84,785 votes. The margin has narrowed as more ballots were tallied, but Dold has never lost his lead.”

    I was at the Victory party and decided to blow it off, since in 2010, Dan Seals lost to Dold 51% to 49% and there are just so many of these things you can take.

    Then, I get home …..

    “Democratic challenger Brad Schneider holds a narrow lead over freshman Republican Rep. Robert Dold in a North Shore congressional race tonight.
    Schneider leads by about 1,500 out of more than 252,000 cast with nearly 97 percent of precincts counted. ”

    CNN has Schnieder winning by 2500 votes with 99% reporting.

    Dold outspent Schneider by 2 or 3 to 1 and ran wall to wall ads, etc.

    If I had stayed, I woulda had a hangover tomorrow.

  • Prairie Pundit

    Sam: I think you will be extremely pleased to learn (if you haven’t already) that Bill Foster will be going back to congress.

  • Bill

    So even FOX is showing 290 EV, and the GOP is disputing OHIO with 18 votes. Why should they continue to refuse to concede. My arithmetic (not math): 290 – 18 = 272.

  • DebG

    Thank you for this interesting site which kept the presidential campaign fair and balanced. Both you and Nate Silver were my best friends for the past month and this allowed me to assure my friends that Obama would be the winner.
    I was astonished by Karl Rove’s response to Fox News calling Ohio for Obama. He acted like a petulant child and said they called it too soon. It was so obvious that he was in severe denial and should go home to rest after conducting this failed campaign.

  • Nora

    Thank you very much for your enlightening commentary throughout this process. Your numbers have provided great comfort to this Princeton alum! What a great outcome!

  • Selden

    Watching Rove’s head explode while trying to explain how Romney could win Ohio reminded me of my favorite quote from Wayne’s World:

    “It might happen.”
    “Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt.”

  • weinerdog

    Michelle Bachmann has quite a battle on her hands. Over 200k votes and Graves is within 500. With her ridiculous money advantage it would be quite an upset. Go Graves!

  • Matthew O

    God Mode. Seriously, I have been posting your stuff on Hannity’s forums for the last month and giving people fits, and now they have all deleted their accounts.

    Seriously. 8 year members. Gone. Lol!

  • Michael Grisham

    Thank you so very much for another wonderful campaign! Right down to Rove and Kuebler-Ross.

  • NumbNutz

    Dear Phil A. Buster,

    Please find enclosed 1 length of sturdy rope complete with hangman’s noose n E-Z DIY instructions.

  • bob mcconnaughey

    “lies, damn lies and Fox ‘news.'”

  • Max Zimmerman

    Great work Professor. Really been a treat to read you this last month.

    Numbers add up, whoda thunk it?

  • Darth

    Three cheers for the nerds. Their time has arrived.

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