Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

We’re back!

November 3rd, 2012, 1:04pm by Sam Wang

At last, we’re back. Andrew is a hero! Restoring the last few days of contenthere  now… Update: Done, with some modifications. If you like the temporary look see If any temporary-site URL gives an error, replace “election” with “synapse.”

Comments please!

Tags: Site News

266 Comments so far ↓

  • Jack Tenold

    It’s 6:15 here on the left coast. How come the latest posts are clocked at 9:46 EST? Are these voices coming from a half hour in the future?

  • Steve

    Dr. Wang: Glad your site is back! Like others, I look forward to it each day.

    I am a practicing statistician, 65 years old, politically independent, who has been running election models for a very long time. Love your work.

    In my case, I aggregate state polls sort of like you, but also sort of like Nate Silver — mainly with a non-mathematic/blasphemous ingredient added — judgment. FYI, my fearless forecast is Obama at 289 and a probability of about 65%. But, even as an independent, I hope your analysis comes true.

    Keep up your good work!

  • E L

    I’ll take Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada and then sit in the clubhouse. I’m not greedy this time. 270 will do. But I’m confident enough that Sam’s numbers are correct that I’ve already ordered a dozen “Run, Hilary, Run 2016” buttons (CafePress) to give at Christmas. Imagine Hilary, Bill, Barack, and Michelle on the campaign trail—The Gang That Could Shoot Straight.

  • Adam

    Dr. Wang, thanks for your hard work. Love the site. I’m a Colorado native and voter and I’m shocked that the polls are showing a tied race here when VA seems to be moving toward Obama, and FL inching closer as well. We can’t possibly be in the same electoral map as the South! Why would VA show more favorable polls to Obama than Colorado right now? Seems to me that if VA was going blue, CO would as well, by a slightly larger margin. It’s like suggesting that NC was going for Obama but VA was going for Romney…makes no sense. Perhaps conventional wisdom is thrown out the window because of the sheer number of Unaffiliated voters in Colorado.

    • Matt McIrvin

      I’d guess it’s demographics. Colorado is somewhat whiter and much less black than Virginia. I think black voters are fired up and pissed off this year in a way that well-off white liberals aren’t, and it’s likely to turn them out.

      Virginia vs. NC is more apples to apples.

  • TerryC

    I like dropping thus URL into the comment streams of my wingnut friends when they forward crap :)

  • mediaglyphic

    Jim Cramer is predicting 440 EV for obama, and saying the election is not even close. The repubs are acting this way and even Britt Hume on Fox news this morning was very circumspect. I really think 440 is a bit stretch but its food for thought

    • Matt McIrvin

      Cramer’s prediction is the first one I’ve seen that’s as silly as some of the Republican claims but in the opposite direction.

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