Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from November 17th, 2012

Gallup’s man misses the point

November 17th, 2012, 1:04am by Sam Wang

(Update, Nov. 19: now with Gallup’s performance shown in graph form.) Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport appears to be on a campaign against poll aggregation. In a recent essay (‘Polling, Likely Voters, and the Law of the Commons‘, he writes: It’s much easier, cheaper, and mostly less risky to focus on aggregating and analyzing others’ […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election

An open-source thank you

November 13th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Benchmarking of Election-Eve snapshots continues. Drew Linzer wrote me: “basically we all succeeded in different ways,” as seen at Applied Rationality and Margin Of Error. His update is here, and a recent interview with the two of us on KUSP-FM is here. A separate topic is genuine long-term predictions, which I will evaluate later (“A Presidential/downticket prediction […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election

A final unskewing

November 12th, 2012, 3:20pm by Sam Wang

Mother Nature is our best teacher and the only one who is always right. – Viktor Hamburger, biologist In yesterday’s Los Angeles Times, several prognosticators (including me) commented on why we were right or wrong. On the wrong side are Colorado researchers Bickers and Berry, who thought that Romney would get 330 electoral votes. Now, […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · President

The House – new, with less democracy!

November 9th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Today, Speaker John Boehner stated that his party’s leverage comes from the fact that it retained control of the House. Yet they lost the popular vote. How can this be? Before the election, I predicted that even if more people voted for Democratic House candidates, Republicans could still retain control. The reason I gave was […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · Redistricting

Feeding Karl Rove a bug

November 9th, 2012, 1:40am by Sam Wang

Today’s PEC news clips: USA Today, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the LA Times, Atlantic Monthly, and the Daily Princetonian. Early on Election Night, the New Hampshire results made clear that the state polls were on target, just as they were in 2000-2008 – more accurate than national polls. At that point it seemed more interesting to watch […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

With Jay Ackroyd at 9pm (soon!)

November 8th, 2012, 7:25pm by Sam Wang

Hi, all. A bit inundated with media, and also recovering. However…join me with Jay Ackroyd on a webcast of Virtually Speaking, in 1.5 hours – at 9pm Eastern. See you! call in: 646 200 3440

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · Politics

PEC on the BBC (and other venues)

November 7th, 2012, 11:17am by Sam Wang

At noon (in about 45 minutes), I’ll be on BBC Radio 4. At some point soon I’ll be on ‘More Or Less,’ a programme on the use of numbers in the news. Adam Gopnik in the New Yorker. Also Mashable, Gawker, the Chronicle of Higher Education, Business Insider, NYTimes, Forbes. It’s fun to see the […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election

After the storm

November 7th, 2012, 9:42am by Sam Wang

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T.S. Eliot Good morning! The day after the election is always a bit of a relief for me. We’re still waiting on a few races, but here’s […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Comment thread #4 – liveblogging

November 7th, 2012, 12:09am by Sam Wang

7:24am: Whew. Thank you all! Various wrapup in the coming days. 1:40am: In comments, a mixed reaction. Some of you heard unfriendliness. But a few of you thought he was more relieved than anything else. It had to be an extremely hard moment for him. Here is the full text. 1:09am: Caught the end of […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election

Comment thread #3 – live blogging

November 6th, 2012, 11:14pm by Sam Wang

11:39pm: Commenters are pointing out Karl Rove being thrown under the bus by Megyn Kelly. He’s still doing his sums, arguing a Romney victory in Ohio is possible. Wow. Just wow. (1) Anger, (2) Denial, (3) Bargaining…holy Kuebler-Ross. 11:34pm: Randall Munroe just texted me “BREAKING: Numbers continue to be best tool for determining which of […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election