Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Presidential discussion thread

October 22nd, 2012, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Analysis is most sensitive to states with the largest influence in determining the Presidential election outcome. You can monitor your favorite state in the right-hand sidebar under The Power Of Your Vote, which ranks states according to individual voter power. Ohio’s usually near the top. Each entry links to the latest from, our data source.¬†With the 3:00PM update come several new polls from Ohio (and Wisconsin, and Iowa…) and consequent movement in the Meta-Margin.

In other news…in case you missed it, here’s the Science Friday interview on NPR with me and Nate Silver.

I won’t be able to watch tonight’s debate (I am visiting Chappaqua to talk with parents and teachers about¬†how children’s minds grow and learn). It is unlikely that debate #3 will have much effect – for example, see the 2004 EV history. The cake’s ingredients are mostly in. And the cake’s in the oven.

Tags: 2012 Election · President

229 Comments so far ↓

  • Martin

    Where did the latest (non reply) comments on this thread go???

  • PollyUSA

    Enjoyed the NPR interview…thanks for the link.

    Also checked out your book. I’m going to buy it for my niece, she’s expecting in March.

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