Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Jul 07: Biden 375 EV (D+6.8% from toss-up), Senate 53 D, 47 R (D+5.7%), House control D+6.0%
Moneyball states: President AR IA AZ, Senate MT KS ME, Legislatures KS TX NC


October 1st, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Good morning. I’ve switched to a short-term prediction. Click on the history to see it.

Today the Meta-Margin is Obama +5.4%, the highest value so far of the general campaign. The yellow “watch zone” includes 353 EV, also a high.

I’m experimenting with flavors of comment moderation. Don’t mind the confusion.

General announcement: if anyone has reliable values for post- vs. pre-redistricting PVI, email me. I’m working on something. Update: found one source.

Tags: 2012 Election · Site News

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