Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from October 31st, 2012

Election Night scenario-tracking tool

October 31st, 2012, 10:25pm by Sam Wang

(Originally posted to temporary site) Greetings, all. I’ve been a bit slow with the analysis. Disruptions in Princeton…though we do have power! It is interesting to see Governor Christie and President Obama get serious – together – about the work of recovering from what I hear is a major mess. Reader Jeff Cardille has cooked up […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Senate: following Obama back up

October 31st, 2012, 10:25pm by Sam Wang

(original version published on temporary server) Rick in Miami has helpfully calculated some time series. As has been the case for several months, Democrats/Independents will control 53-55 seats (middle 50% of outcomes) – a change of zero to +2 seats for the Democrats.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Blown away

October 29th, 2012, 11:11pm by Sam Wang

Not by Sandy, though the winds are pretty high (check out this excellent moving representation). I’m more blown away by the web traffic over the last few weeks. Take a look.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Site News

Nerds under attack!

October 29th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes: This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Getting away from Sandy?

October 29th, 2012, 8:50am by Sam Wang

Other than Virginia, Sandy is a blue-state hurricane. If you are looking for a place to go, might I suggest canvassing? District options are listed here. PA-12 looks good, and far upstate New York. And of course there is always Ohio. Getting kind of breezy around here.

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President

Offline for a moment…

October 28th, 2012, 9:08pm by Sam Wang

I must relocate the server in light of the imminent hurricane strike. Don’t be concerned if we go away for a bit. Update: back. Fingers crossed!

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Tags: Meta-analysis · Site News

A Presidential/downticket prediction challenge

October 28th, 2012, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

Last month (“Using predictions in the service of ideals and profit,” Sept. 23) I asked what makes a good prediction. I made an analogy to hurricane forecasting. Predictions should: Be precise, allowing us to pinpoint a narrow range of outcomes. Change relatively little in the long term, giving us time to plan in advance. Give a […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Home stretch activism: two Senate races

October 27th, 2012, 11:15pm by Sam Wang

With nine days left to the national election, many races have fallen into place. Where should activists put their effort and money?

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Senate


October 27th, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang

In Princeton, we’re making sure we have bottled water and other supplies. It’s not clear how serious Hurricane Sandy will be. But we are grateful for the advance warning that is made possible by the National Weather Service. Seeing as how predictions are so useful, Andrew Ferguson and I have decided to put the Obama re-elect […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

John Dickerson replies

October 26th, 2012, 9:00pm by Sam Wang

I’ve been exchanging emails today with John Dickerson of Slate/CBS. As many of you know, he and I take different approaches to building a story about a campaign. Tonight he replied directly to my essay. I reproduce his comment below. As usual for PEC commenters, I know you’ll keep it civil. -SW Hello everyone. I’m John Dickerson. […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President