Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

A special, math-free announcement

September 28th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang


For a few of you here’s a version with no math at all:

The Presidency and Senate control are nearly certain to go to the Democrats. The House is very much in play, but Democrats may have a slight advantage. This is why Nancy Pelosi and Bill Kristol are speaking as they are. This is also why smart money is flowing downticket – where it can make a difference to either side.

It feels like the campaign has hit a plateau (see the Meta-Margin, RAND survey, and House generic Congressional data). Or maybe it’s just my knee acting up. Let’s see what happens next.

Tags: 2012 Election · House

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