Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

On Sirius XM tonight 7:40pm ET

September 27th, 2012, 3:56pm by Sam Wang

Tonight at 7:40pm Eastern, I’ve agreed to be on “Showdown 2012” on Sirius XM Satellite Radio’s POTUS channel (#124) with Charles Ellison to talk about prediction models and my calculation that the Democrats might retake the House.  Tune in!

PEC also made it into the conversation today between Rachel Maddow and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. I have some thoughts on some of the pushback I’ve been getting, which is mostly qualitative or based on pre-campaign “fundamentals.” More soon.

Tags: 2012 Election · House

10 Comments so far ↓

  • Brad Davis

    Congrats Professor Wang. Good luck!

  • Dave Kliman

    That’s great to hear, Sam! I’ve been enjoying your work since 2004. It’s nice to know that at least peripherally, Rachel Maddow has heard about you and the excellent accurate job you do. I may not be able to listen to XM but I sure hope you will have some kind of mp3 link for the full interview afterwards.

  • Iseeurfuture

    Congrats! Just don’t sell your soul like Nate Silver did. I still have respect for him but you know what I mean :)

  • Dgarr

    I have really enjoyed your analysis daily. I have shared it with everyone I know. I look forward to your conversation on “Showdown 2012″ tonight. Great work Professor Wang!

  • Olav Grinde

    Shucks. This is one of those times I really regret having neither a radio nor a TV. Please let us know if your interview will be available online afterwards.

  • Amitabh Lath

    Sam, now that it’s big enough to be obvious, all the chatter has started.

    What’s impressive is that you saw this days ago when it was just a barely insignificant bump in any given poll. But the movement was correlated across several districts/states.

    It’s a lot like the Higgs search. A bunch of different channels with fluctuations, one sigma here, a third of a sigma there… but add the whole bunch up properly and voila, a signal.

    • Sam Wang

      Yes, it is good to see the conversation move.

      The power of proper aggregation is great. I was pleased to be in advance on (1) the probable Obama-Romney outcome, (2) the Ryan bounce, (3) Akin’s crash, (4) the RNC anti-bounce, and (5) the probable Senate outcome. It’s not clear which way the House will go, but at least now we know to pay attention.

  • Amitabh Lath

    I second Olav. I don’t have sat-radio either, any way to get the audio or a transcript of your interview?

    As for which way the house will go, it’s pretty clear there is a big move afoot. Not just the size of the +D jump, but the 1st derivative. It all happened in a day or two.

    Maybe it will climb back down, but this many minds changing this quickly suggests some sort of logjam has broken. National concerns might overwhelm local ones in House races.

  • Dave Kliman

    It reminds me of when iterating a complex polynomial, reaching a moment of escape.

  • Richard Vance

    I’ve been hitting the PEC for several election cycles now and its of great help just seeing the numbers speak so as to tune out the talking head buzz. I hope you don’t get bought off to go elsewhere:-((
    I really enjoy the comments here too, its thinking people being polite.

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