Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Presidential Meta-Analysis update

September 14th, 2012, 1:58pm by Sam Wang


Welcome, Daily Dish and Ezra Klein readers. An overview of the fall landscape is here. Our long-range projection of the Obama November win probability, based on polls alone, has been at 87-89% since July. At the end of September will come a more exact projection. The suspense is in the Senate and House.

The topline above is today’s snapshot. There’s a little glitch with OH and WI data, which we’ll soon fix. Thanks to reader Froggy for catching it.

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

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