Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from September 30th, 2012

The mailbag

September 30th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

If you are a casual reader, you might be missing out on some very good comment threads. This year they include physicists, political scientists, lawyers, financial traders, neuroscientists…there’s a lot going on down there. Many are partisans, but the emphasis is on analysis, not political opinion. A recent sampling follows.

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Tags: Site News

The presidential predictor sharpens

September 29th, 2012, 4:05pm by Sam Wang

June 2016: This explanation from 2012 captures the concept of the Bayesian predictor, but in 2016 the prior is set differently. As of now, I am using national Clinton v. Trump poll median for all 2016, along with a large SD (+/-7%), to set a fairly weak prior. This assumption will eventually be replaced with […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

The short-term presidential predictor (with MATLAB)

September 29th, 2012, 10:37am by Sam Wang

This is a technical explanation corresponding to this post.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Charlie Cook skeptical about a House switch

September 29th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Via Andrew Sullivan, veteran election-watcher Charlie Cook says the House is currently not looking like it will switch. Of the Congress-watchers, I think Cook and his team are very much worth listening to for precise snapshots at any given moment. However, their snapshots are subject to change over time. In September 2010 he forecast GOP […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

A special, math-free announcement

September 28th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

For a few of you here’s a version with no math at all: The Presidency and Senate control are nearly certain to go to the Democrats. The House is very much in play, but Democrats may have a slight advantage. This is why Nancy Pelosi and Bill Kristol are speaking as they are. This is […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

A possible House flip enters pundit imaginations

September 28th, 2012, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Eight days (or five weeks, take your pick) after I pointed it out, the idea of a Democratic takeover of the House has crept into the national conversation. Yesterday, Rachel Maddow (citing us as evidence) discussed the possibility with Nancy Pelosi, who thinks the probability is about 60%. Clearly Pelosi’s duty out on the basketball court is to […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

On Sirius XM tonight 7:40pm ET

September 27th, 2012, 3:56pm by Sam Wang

Tonight at 7:40pm Eastern, I’ve agreed to be on “Showdown 2012” on Sirius XM Satellite Radio’s POTUS channel (#124) with Charles Ellison to talk about prediction models and my calculation that the Democrats might retake the House.  Tune in! PEC also made it into the conversation today between Rachel Maddow and House Minority Leader Nancy […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

A convention’s place is in the House – and the Senate

September 27th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

It’s been kicked around in punditland that party conventions have little value in modern political life. This is contradicted by the lasting change in President Obama’s lead over Governor Romney, as well as the notable increase in his party’s likelihood of retaking the House of Representatives. Now, reader Rick in Miami has done a nice […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Site improvements (and Bayesian jealousy)

September 26th, 2012, 9:00pm by Sam Wang

Some improvements from Andrew Ferguson: The update date/time above now links to the history graph, and the Obama/Romney numbers link to the map. In the map itself, clicking it generates a popup window with lots of little features, especially if you start right-clicking on particular states. Finally, over to the right, under The Power Of Your […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President · Site News

Vast liberal conspiracies?

September 26th, 2012, 12:48pm by Sam Wang

(Welcome, readers of IEEE Spectrum! A small group, but enriched for quantitative people. Do not be fooled by the picture. I usually do not glower.) The Popular Vote Meta-Margin just hit 5.0%, its highest value of the campaign. I will briefly address the wishful thinking of Romney supporters, despite its faint whiff of hysteria. Some fantasies […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate