Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from August 23rd, 2012

75 days

August 23rd, 2012, 2:02am by Sam Wang

A few of you have written asking if I plan to change my Presidential prediction based on recent changes. The answer is no. Some envelope scribblings today to show the basic reason: until the end of September, the daily snapshot is not correlated with the final outcome. Read on.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · President

Lyndon Johnson, VP game changer

August 22nd, 2012, 9:46am by Sam Wang

A true game-changing VP candidate swings the race in November. One example is Lyndon Johnson, who in 1960 carried the day for John F. Kennedy by delivering southern states. This is recounted very absorbingly in Robert Caro’s recent book, which I highly recommend.

[

Tags: Politics · President

Akin sheds 8 points overnight to near-tie

August 21st, 2012, 1:23am by Sam Wang

A new poll from PPP(D) gives Akin 44%, McCaskill 43%. The pollster says there’s “little difference” from before, as does Josh Marshall. Normally I don’t like to comment on one poll. But this interpretation is likely to be erroneous for two reasons.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Missouri, another competitive Senate race?

August 20th, 2012, 9:45am by Sam Wang

Todd Akin (R), running for Senate in Missouri, said that victims of “legitimate rape” can’t get pregnant. The repetition of this old myth is very damaging. Senator Claire McCaskill (D), until now lagging in polls, may get a second chance. Republicans might be surprised to learn that I now upgrade the advisability of supporting Akin ( […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Stat-urday: How to pinpoint the Ryan bounce

August 17th, 2012, 4:05pm by Sam Wang

I don’t own a cat. This rules out catblogging. Instead I will do something geekier: statblogging. (Stat-urday, nyuck nyuck.) Today I show you how I look at a simple data set. It’s a timely example: the Ryan “bounce.” Did it happen at all? How big was it?

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Show your support where it counts

August 16th, 2012, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

Have I convinced you that this year’s Senate races are critical? Whatever your party affiliation, a lot is at stake. Put it another way…Heidi Heitkamp may be more important in your life in 2013 than Paul Ryan. This means that in the Senate, your donations have far more impact than in the Presidential race. Give […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · Politics · Senate

Ryanization of Senate races; a small Presidential bounce?

August 16th, 2012, 9:22am by Sam Wang

Yesterday I argued that Ryan’s VP selection would not so much affect the Presidential race as potentially tip the balance of Congressional power. Today, supporting evidence comes in the form of polls and messaging.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

Ryan is a game-changer — but not for Romney

August 15th, 2012, 11:59am by Sam Wang

(Welcome to readers of The Daily Dish and Mother Jones.) As I’ve written, Obama has a clear lead over Romney,  by 4.4% (326 EV to 212 EV) as of this writing. A lead of this size in August is very hard for a challenger to overcome, using the time histories of many past re-election campaigns as […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

The impact of the Ryan VP pick

August 14th, 2012, 12:12pm by Sam Wang

According to Politico, dozens of GOP operatives agree, more or less: Ryan’s a risky pick, and could drag down Republican hopes in the House and Senate. Quote: “…the mood of anxiety and skepticism is overwhelming.” More later.

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Paul Ryan

August 11th, 2012, 9:47am by Sam Wang

And here I thought it might be Scott Walker (WI), who might have been the choice had Romney been in a stronger position. Adding Ryan seems like a defensive move to shore up the base. (To find out why, see this piece by Ryan Lizza in the New Yorker.) This may focus the race on […]

[

Tags: 2012 Election · House · President