Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Looking for the post-RNC bounce?

August 31st, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Come back Monday. That’s how long we will take based on Ryan 2012 and Palin 2008. When we do post it will be accurate, unlike single-poll reports.

Generally, for updates on Presidential odds, I have advice: stop watching the race for three weeks. I have shown you that day-to-day swings mean nothing until then. And it is the nature of my long-term prediction to not change. So why look?

(Update: just to be clear, don’t go away! I’ll be here, analyzing other issues. But the news for all of September is baked into the PEC math: Obama’s win probability is still 88%. And Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.)

You’re still here? In that case…I have something gory below the fold. Click if you dare.

To those who favor Obama: Do you fear that your President will not be re-elected? Polls reveal a substantial chance that one or both houses of Congress could end up in Republican hands. The Senate could very well go either way. Think of it. Your last line of protection. Gone.

But there is a shred of hope. Give to my ActBlue candidates.

Even if your beloved President is re-elected…what if he gets a Republican Senate? What an awful scenario. Blockade of legislation! No judicial appointments!! Discretionary programs crippled!11!1!eleven!!! Again, the Senate’s the key.

To those who oppose Obama: That success-hating Kenyan socialist pretender may well be re-elected. If the Senate stays in Democratic control, what will keep Harry Reid from abolishing the filibuster? What will be-pearled Nancy Pelosi and her chardonnay-sipping pals get up to? Taxing capital gains? Legalize teh gay???

But right-wingers, you have a very good chance of capturing the Senate. Grasp this, your best hope. Give to key candidates on your side. The National Republican Senatorial Committee can help you.

But you’ll have to click here to see which races are most important. Don’t flinch. There are photographs of dhimmitude-loving, sheeple-leading DemocRATS there. But they do have opponents…your heroes. Take back America!!1!


Ok, back to the confidence intervals and statistical whatnot.

Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

4 Comments so far ↓

  • Tapen Sinha

    Three weeks? You are cruel.


  • Outloud FLL

    Stop obsessing for all of September? :\

    So putting on your neuroscience hat, can you explain why people like me will still ride the poll roller coaster (a poller coaster?) for this month in spite of your very logical advice?


    • Sam Wang

      Sean: it is well known that we and rats learn to press a switch for a reward more readily if the reward is unreliable. Coming here to see if there is a change meets that criterion pretty well. The brain’s reward mechanisms desensitize more if they get a jolt every time. So you see, for your brain this site is filled with fresh thrills.

  • Outloud FLL

    Mmmm, what a tasty pellet. :)

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