Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from June 28th, 2012

The Supreme Court’s rightward turn

June 28th, 2012, 6:31am by Sam Wang

Today at 10:00am the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) rules on the Affordable Care Act. Opinion by Chief Justice Roberts, maybe with Associate Justice Kennedy. Look for a 5-4 decision to overturn part/all, or a 6-3 decision to uphold (with CJ switching to maintain control). Update: upheld, 5-4. I misunderstood the advance word. Roberts wrote for the […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

“Forecasts,” snapshots, and predictions, 2012

June 27th, 2012, 2:51pm by Sam Wang

Over at Matt Dickinson’s Presidential Power, there’s a discussion between him, Nate Silver, and others. I weighed in on the confusion between poll snapshots (what all aggregators do, including Nate Silver’s “forecasts”) and true predictions (what political scientists do). Here’s part of what I wrote… Basically, I think the term “prediction” is used too loosely. I’ll […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election