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Entries from April 21st, 2012
Protected: Two ways to estimate primary outcomes without polls (transcript)
April 21st, 2012, 7:26pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2016 Election · President
Princeton Election Consortium
Innovations in democracy since 2004
Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Moneyball: U.S. Senate
Democrats (U.S. Senate):
Republicans (U.S. Senate):
Senate and House 2020
Senate:
View all statesState Margin Voter Power MT Bullock +1.0 100.0 ME Gideon +2.5 63.4 AK Sullivan +3.0 59.8 IA Greenfield +2.0 24.6 MS Hyde-Smith +3.0 17.5 GA Ossoff +1.2 13.7
House:
Code on Github
Output (data) GraphicsSam’s Brain Books
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President 2020
About the model
All graphs at once
EV estimator over time:
Meta-margin above toss-up:
Single-state probabilities (including +/-3% alternatives):
View all statesState Margin Voter Power AZ Biden +3.0 100.0 NE-2 Biden +4.5 92.7 NV Biden +6.0 83.0 ME-2 Biden +3.0 78.3 NC Biden +2.0 64.3 PA Biden +5.0 60.0 FL Biden +3.0 53.0 GA Biden +1.5 52.3 NJ Biden +19.4 2e-06
Code on Github
Output (data) GraphicsRedistricting Moneyball (and 50-State Guides)
- Redistricting Moneyball: key legislative races
- Moneyball explainer and video
- PEC's 50 State Guide to 2020
- Taniel's What's on the Ballot?
- Better Know A Ballot
- National Early Voting Tracker
Republicans (redistricting):
