Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from October 31st, 2010

Remaining knife-edge Senate races: CO, WV, IL

October 31st, 2010, 11:43am by Sam Wang

In terms of leverage, Colorado and West Virginia are extremely ripe for GOTV and last-minute donations. Illinois is a large state, harder to be effective; also, Kirk (R) is edging ahead. Nevada…Reid’s significantly behind Angle.

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Tags: Politics

On the wisdom of crowds of pollsters

October 31st, 2010, 11:22am by Sam Wang

Last-minute polls will be available tomorrow. The final Senate prediction will move (indeed it already has). Also, I haven’t applied variance minimization (VM) yet for tiebreakers. In the meantime… I should express the idea of the previous post more carefully. Let us pose a hypothesis: Pollsters sample voters with no average bias. Their errors are […]

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Tags: Politics

Simple poll-based snapshot: House 230R-205D (+/-1.5), Senate 52D-48R (+/-1)

October 30th, 2010, 1:09pm by Sam Wang

[Title edited to reflect the fact that polls are still changing at the last minute, so predictions won’t be final until after the weekend. Notably, Reid/Angle is no longer a tossup. Reid is likely to lose.] As I wrote in 2008, despite the fuss about fancy modeling, for topline estimates, models such as FiveThirtyEight essentially […]

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Tags: Politics

Focusing efforts wisely

October 27th, 2010, 9:52am by Sam Wang

I’ve received correspondence from a Democratic activist taking me to task. I pointed out that his Democratic Congressman was likely to win by a large margin. He thought that my saying this would breed complacency. Putting aside the idea that very many Democrats this election season are complacent, there is a critical point I must […]

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Tags: Politics · Princeton

2010 Congressional races – where to donate

October 25th, 2010, 3:34am by Sam Wang

Dear readers: If you’re looking for analysis of 2010 US Congressional polls, see Stochastic Democracy and the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight. The bottom line: Today’s polling indicates that the House will flip to Republican control (233-202) and the Senate will stay under Democratic control (52-48). From Stochastic Democracy: Where to donate. To get maximum effect […]

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Tags: Politics · Uncategorized