Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Results NY-23 (D upset) and NJ-Gov (R)

November 4th, 2009, 12:29am by Sam Wang


Christie (R) won by 4.2%, substantially more than the 1.0% I predicted. On the other hand, Corzine (D) received 44.6% of the vote, quite close to the 44.5% VM-optimized polling average. Looks like it might be Daggett (I) supporters reclaiming the power of their vote.

Was I wrong about NY-23? Only two polls were available. They came before the full impact of Scozzafava (R)’s last-minute endorsement of Owens (D), which evidently worked. It’s a squeaker. Owens won by 4%. This is a lose-lose for Republicans: loss of the seat is a self-inflicted injury by the party’s unreconstructed right-wingers. Full results are here.

Tags: Politics

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