Photo credit: Callie Shell/Aurora for Time.
A long campaign
November 11th, 2008, 6:48pm by Sam Wang
Tags: 2008 Election
Princeton Election Consortium
Innovations in democracy since 2004
Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC
Moneyball: U.S. Senate
Democrats (U.S. Senate):
Republicans (U.S. Senate):
Senate and House 2020
Senate:
View all statesState Margin Voter Power MT Bullock +1.0 100.0 ME Gideon +2.5 63.4 AK Sullivan +3.0 59.8 IA Greenfield +2.0 24.6 MS Hyde-Smith +3.0 17.5 GA Ossoff +1.2 13.7
House:
Code on Github
Output (data) GraphicsSam’s Brain Books
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President 2020
About the model
All graphs at once
EV estimator over time:
Meta-margin above toss-up:
Single-state probabilities (including +/-3% alternatives):
View all statesState Margin Voter Power AZ Biden +3.0 100.0 NE-2 Biden +4.5 92.7 NV Biden +6.0 83.0 ME-2 Biden +3.0 78.3 NC Biden +2.0 64.3 PA Biden +5.0 60.0 FL Biden +3.0 53.0 GA Biden +1.5 52.3 NJ Biden +19.4 2e-06
Code on Github
Output (data) GraphicsRedistricting Moneyball (and 50-State Guides)
- Redistricting Moneyball: key legislative races
- Moneyball explainer and video
- PEC's 50 State Guide to 2020
- Taniel's What's on the Ballot?
- Better Know A Ballot
- National Early Voting Tracker
Republicans (redistricting):
I’ll say…Barack’s lucky though, his job for the next four(hopefully eight) years is to be President…those of us who volunteered for him are now basically feeling empty like the Onion video. Thanks for continuing to post stuff :P
Hang in there William – visit http://www.change.gov. We’re just getting started. Sam, you run an excellent site, thank you.