Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Get on the bus

October 14th, 2008, 7:00am by Sam Wang

Many have answered my call to support knife-edge races. It’s a good start!

As a neuroscientist, I know that one of the most salient emotions is fear. Here’s some news for you: Patrick Ruffini at The Next Right is exhorting the RNC to redirect $15 million away from the failing McCain campaign and into marginal Senate races in order to “save the filibuster.” His top choices? North Carolina, Oregon, Minnesota, and Georgia. Three of these are featured on my ActBlue page, and they are also listed over at the NRSC. Ruffini knows that the place to make or break progressive legislation in 2009 is the Senate. Now, are you as smart as Patrick Ruffini?

In the words of Spike Lee, it is time to Get On The Bus.

Tags: 2008 Election

One Comment so far ↓

  • Sam Wang

    Questions on voting problems such as fraud were addressed in the previous post. Relevant to this, it is worthwhile to note that results in 2000 and 2004 reflected pre-election state polls almost perfectly. For example, my poll-based EV estimator in 2004 (left sidebar) showed a small but consistent Bush lead for most of October 2004. Taken in the aggregate, state polls have been a very accurate predictor of final outcome.