Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Top 10 Web tools for election season

October 10th, 2008, 10:42pm by Sam Wang

Lifehacker has a top 10 list of tools that cover issue tracking, voter information, and poll-tracking. A great resource!

Tags: 2008 Election

2 Comments so far ↓

  • Ethan

    I was hoping that PEC would make the list!
    I seriously think that there is no reason why could be gaining more attention than PEC. I mean, your meta analysis have proven record in the past being correct while Nate have proven record in predicting baseball.

    I specifically like your model because your model is somehow very less prone to fluctuations. When all national polls showed McCain leading, you still consistently showed Obama to have some EV lead although by a very tiny margin. at that time showed McCain leading Obama because Nate’s model take into account the national polls too.

    I hope you are 100% correct again this time :)

  • Sam Wang

    I disagree – there are good reasons why FiveThirtyEight is popular. As I’ve said before, Silver has put together an extremely useful resource.

    In regard to fluctuation, one factor that works against him is overreliance on numerical simulation when an exact solution is possible. The problem can be repaired, but he will need to reach beyond his current toolkit.

    In regard to correcting for national polls, this seemed like a good idea for a while, and I was tempted to do it. But Silver himself pointed out that the post-RNC bounce for McCain/Palin was concentrated in frontier states. This would not have been predictable in advance by existing demographic models. This invalidates the use of national polls as a correction. A real consequence is that showing McCain pulling ahead in the EC was probably an error. I wrote about this previously.

Leave a Comment