Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

National change since debate debate: zilch (so far)

September 26th, 2008, 12:31pm by Sam Wang


My colleague Paul D. wondered if recent crazy events had helped McCain at all. Of the four daily trackers (Research 2000, Gallup, Diageo, Rasmussen) the margin has moved by 0.5+/-1.7% toward McCain, not significant. Of course, this could still change since these are rolling averages. Also, McCain has given in on not appearing at Ole Miss until Congressional leaders and the White House make a deal, a clear loss of face.

The national margin is now Obama +5.0+/-0.7% (n=7, Sept. 22-25). That’s the baseline for comparison as we head into tonight’s debate.

Tags: 2008 Election

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