Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Aug 13: Biden 357 EV (D+6.1% from toss-up), Senate 52 D, 48 R (D+4.0%), House control D+3.5%
Moneyball states: President AZ NV AR, Senate MT KS AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Site features, old and new

September 15th, 2008, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

We’ve rearranged things a little. Andrew Ferguson and Drew Thaler have added features and documentation that I hope you’ll like. Foremost is the interactive electoral map on the right sidebar, which is helpful in examining likely future scenarios.

The map graphic itself, now visible on the main page, shows state-by-state win probabilities for Obama and McCain, as well as states that are safe for them as of today. It’s static, and clicking it gets you a bigger version.

However, if you click on the lines below it, you get something more interesting: an interactive pop-up window. You can click on the map to change states, and right-click to return the results to their starting values – or to the 2004 results.

The “With +2% for Obama” and “With +2% for McCain” lines show what would happen if state margins all moved by 2% toward either candidate. This is a swing that can easily happen in a few days. It’s also the kind of hidden effect that could exist with certain kinds of polling error. If you are convinced that such an error exists, you can see for yourself where such an error would put the race.

The voter Influence tab is now better documented. This is an index of how much one person’s vote is worth in terms of swinging the overall election outcome. It’s a useful tool for you to ascertain where your efforts are most efficiently spent, for instance for voter canvassing. It applies equally to Obama and McCain supporters, and should be useful to any reader of this site.

Finally, the electoral vote history graph has been updated slightly to include the Democratic convention and the Republican convention. Because state polls stopped during that period, only the net effect is visible in the history itself.

There are likely to be more features (or adjustments) as Election Day approaches. We’re still cogitating on what they might be…

Tags: 2008 Election · Site News

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