Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

InTrade and Palin (again)

September 2nd, 2008, 10:59am by Sam Wang

InTrade has a new political contract: Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election, now trading at 12.0. Buy or sell? I’m thinking buy. (Update: strong buy.) (Update 2: That speech got the base excited – indeed, it may end up being the highlight of the convention. And she established her attack-dog credentials. Once she resurfaces, I guess we’ll get more of that. One last blast of Palin news during this polling hole:¬†hooray for earmarks and the Bridge to Nowhere!)

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