Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from September 30th, 2008

New rules

September 30th, 2008, 9:26pm by Sam Wang

As we head into the last five weeks of the campaign, polls are coming more frequently. In response, we are making two changes to the Meta-Analysis: (a) the averaging rule and (b) the update schedule.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis · Site News

Princeton economists on the Wall Street crisis

September 30th, 2008, 2:21pm by Sam Wang

A week ago, five Princeton economists held a public discussion on the current crisis: Hyun Shin, Markus Brunnermeier, Harrison Hong, Paul Krugman, and Alan Blinder. I wasn’t there, but the word is that it was edifying but frightening, and well worth the hour to watch it. [YouTube video]

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Tags: Princeton

Primary maps and Purple America

September 30th, 2008, 10:00am by Sam Wang

(From Bob Vanderbei, chair of Operations Research and Finance. -Sam) The primaries are well behind us but I thought I might point out that I’ve made some “Purple Primary” maps. You can check them out here. Of course, in the primaries, the races were intra-party. Hence, purpality is only a measure of voter turnout, which […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Princeton

300,000th view – thank you!

September 29th, 2008, 3:30pm by Sam Wang

Last night we provided the 300,000th page view. I wasn’t expecting it until today, but links from Andrew Sullivan, DailyKos, and many others to The Disappearing Bradley Effect pushed us over. Thank you!

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Tags: Site News

The disappearing Bradley effect

September 27th, 2008, 1:03am by Sam Wang

I’ll continue my consideration of factors that may systematically bias polls. Yesterday it was the effect of cell phone users, which I estimated could very slightly undersample Obama supporters. Today let’s consider latent racism. A hot topic among polling nerds is the “Bradley effect,” which occurs when a non-white (usually black) candidate falls short of […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

By the numbers: Obama wins first debate (updated)

September 27th, 2008, 1:01am by Sam Wang

The transcript of the first debate is here. Several pieces of survey evidence point to an Obama win. Obama did better among undecided voters in a CBS survey [PDF]. Frank Luntz’s Fox focus group (read the 11:35 entry) showed that a majority was “moved” by Obama’s performance, especially his criticism of McCain’s judgment errors on […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Facebooking the Meta-Analysis

September 26th, 2008, 11:45pm by Sam Wang

Reader (and former student) Dave M. makes an interesting suggestion: write Facebook applications for the Meta-Analysis. Interested in helping? Read on…

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Tags: 2008 Election

National change since debate debate: zilch (so far)

September 26th, 2008, 12:31pm by Sam Wang

My colleague Paul D. wondered if recent crazy events had helped McCain at all. Of the four daily trackers (Research 2000, Gallup, Diageo, Rasmussen) the margin has moved by 0.5+/-1.7% toward McCain, not significant. Of course, this could still change since these are rolling averages. Also, McCain has given in on not appearing at Ole […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

The cell phone effect: about 1 percent

September 25th, 2008, 5:27pm by Sam Wang

Improvements are in progress. Go to the interactive map and right-click a state. You will see options: access to original polling data, results from 2004, and the effects of adding support to your favorite candidate. More features will come. And now for today’s question. How much has cell phone usage affected the reliability of polls? […]

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Tags: 2008 Election

The debate debate: do all roads lead to Palin?

September 25th, 2008, 5:15pm by Sam Wang

Team McCain had proposed to have the debate on October 2nd – in place of the Biden-Palin debate, which would then be…rescheduled. Palin’s interview with Katie Couric has been painful to watch (and based on Couric’s reaction, painful to conduct as well). McCain rushed over to appear with Couric, cancelling David Letterman in the process. […]

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Tags: 2008 Election