Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC

Entries from August 22nd, 2008

New polls / voting technology news

August 22nd, 2008, 10:14am by Sam Wang

Lots of new polls today, the latest in a stream. The median poll age in key states has improved: FL (4 days), OH (9 days), VA (10 days), CO (10 days). It would be nice to get one more update in Ohio; I think that’s a 4-week-old Quinnipiac poll in the back of the fridge […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

VP guessing

August 21st, 2008, 12:32am by Sam Wang

While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess (with final update) after the jump… Update: two things. I’m thinking my first guess was wrong. Anyway, we’re not going to hear who the pick is until the Obama campaign milks “how-many-houses-does-McCain-own” some more. Speaking of which, […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258

August 20th, 2008, 9:10am by Sam Wang

A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more […]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Battleground-state spending: comparisons with 2004

August 18th, 2008, 10:26pm by Sam Wang

Today we have a news story about the state-by-state spending patterns by the two campaigns. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more broadly. At first this may seem odd. But it makes sense in terms of voter power – and relates to a recent change I made in defining the […]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election

The suspense in Ohio…

August 15th, 2008, 9:24am by Sam Wang

I don’t know about you, but the suspense is killing me. Where is that history trend headed? If you look at the details, the big state that hasn’t reported in weeks is Ohio. Once Ohio reports, we should have a fairly clear idea of the August swing, which I ascribe to McCain’s Celebrity(!)/Anti-Christ ads. Update: […]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

To poll obsessives everywhere: welcome (and welcome back)

August 14th, 2008, 11:25am by Sam Wang

If you’re a reader from 2004, welcome back. For everyone old and new, take a good look around. There’s lots to see. At first glance, there are two reasons you might be less interested in the Meta-Analysis this year: In 2004, the suspense was greater. Although Bush was in trouble for most of the summer, […]

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Tags: Site News

One small weakness in the Meta-Analysis

August 10th, 2008, 4:56pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Analysis made a correct 2004 Election Eve prediction, and gives good single-glance information as the race heats up. Currently, in August, it moves relatively slowly due to the sparseness of polling data. But by September this problem will fade as the race picks up.

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Tags: 2008 Election

Blogospheric mentions of the Meta-Analysis

August 8th, 2008, 12:14pm by Sam Wang

Thanks to returning and new readers Washington Monthly, The Economist, Angry Bear, Chimpanzee Tea Party, and Matt McIrvin. McIrvin’s capsule history of the 2004 Meta-Analysis is particularly good.

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Tags: Meta-analysis

The voter influence measure

August 8th, 2008, 10:37am by Sam Wang

A reader James asked about the extreme values that the “Voter Influence” measure was taking on. His comment and my reply are here. This quantity (seen in the right sidebar) expresses the marginal influence that individual voters have on the final outcome probability. Per his feedback, I’ve modifed it…

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Tags: 2008 Election

A technical note: Non-independence among states

August 7th, 2008, 7:28am by Sam Wang

The comments on the last thread were quite instructive, and led me to look over Silver’s methods documentation in detail. Wow, that’s quite a complex procedure he has. I should probably address your questions about it before commencing with further description of the Meta-Analysis (which is not a prediction).

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Tags: Meta-analysis · Uncategorized