Princeton Election Consortium

Innovations in democracy since 2004

Outcome: Biden 306 EV (D+1.2% from toss-up), Senate 50 D (D+1.0%)
Nov 3 polls: Biden 342 EV (D+5.3%), Senate 50-55 D (D+3.9%), House control D+4.6%
Moneyball states: President AZ NE-2 NV, Senate MT ME AK, Legislatures KS TX NC


August 30th, 2008, 9:54am by Sam Wang

Opinion-changing political events are now happening more frequently than state polls. The weakness I mentioned before, that until September the Meta-Analysis is a slow-moving index, is apparent. It contains no polls that started after August 21st, the date of McCain’s statement about his houses, for the following states: Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. In Nevada and Virginia, there is only one post-8/21 poll. We do not have a complete measure of what happened even by the time of the Democratic convention.

For an independent look at where things are now, look at national polls. The RealClearPolitics average is easy to read. Even there, 3 of the 6 national polls displayed are pre-8/21.

You’ll just have to wait. While you’re doing that, read about Obama and McCain‘s proposed policies (and this and this). I know, what a radical thought.

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